Bill Giles isn't enough?
The Philadelphia Daily News' Sam Donnellon has an article applauding Ed Wade for his recent work, most recently his acquisition of former Pirates reliever Mike WIlliams. But he is also hoping that Wade gets right back on the phone to Pittsburgh to acquire one more player: LF Brian Giles.
Donnellon sees Giles very nicely filling the hole in LF created by Pat Burrell and his lack of hitting. Donnellon argues that Giles is the perfect short-term solution, adding a potent bat to the heart of the lineup and hopefully carrying the team into October baseball. With Pittsburgh in salary dump mode, Giles can probably be had for less than he is worth, and if the purse strings of ownership are still open, he is affordable at an average of $9 million a season.
But even Donnellon admits this is a short-term solution. Come the offseason, the Phillies would have two top LF, both with contracts that average around $9 million a year, and neither a candidate to change positions. One of them would have to go, and Donnellon knows it wouldn't be Burrell. The organization has already invested too much in both his present and his future to part with him after one bad year. Giles already has multiple teams (Oakland, Seattle) after his services, and the Phillies would probably be able to deal him in the offseason.
It sounds, hypothetically, like a great idea. But practically, would it work? I am not talking baseball-wise or financially. While there have been rumors that the Phillies should send Burrell down to AAA to work out the kinks, most of those rumors are followed by whispers of "but what would it do to his confidence, his psyche, to be sent down?". The same whispers can be applied here. What happens to his mental outlook if the Phillies were to acquire a top-notch slugger to help the team, and he just so happens to play the same position as Burrell? Does he see it as a challenge? Does he perceive it as a slap in the face?
And worse, what happens if the Phillies find no takers for Giles in the offseason? What then?
Donnellon presents a great hypothetical...but that's about as far as it should go.
Thursday, July 24, 2003
A shot in the arm
Randy Wolf gave the Phillies exaclty what they needed last night: a victory, snapping the two-game losing streak; and a night off for the bullpen. After two straight starts by Brandon Duckworth and Kevin Millwood of less than three and four innings, respectively, Wolf went all nine last night, firing a four-hit, complete game shutout against the new-look Cubbies at Wrigley Field.
Wolf got the offensive help he needed early on. A solo home run from Ricky Ledee -- playing in LF for Pat Burrell -- in the second gave the Phillies a 1-0 lead, and a two-run bomb onto Sheffield Avenue in the third by Jim Thome made it 3-0. The long ball by Thome allowed him to reach 1,000 RBI for his career, fittingly in the park that he dreamed about playing in while growing up. The two homers would prove to be all that Wolf would need on the night. Wolf threw 131 pitches on the night (some reports have him at 135 or 136), 86 of them for strikes. He allowed just the four hits, and walked only three. He faced some trouble in the first inning, with two on and two out, but got Eric Karros to ground out to end the threat. He allowed only three more base runners to reach scoring position after the first.
Wolf held the Cubs' new acquisitions -- Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez, acquired from Pittsburgh for a wind machine (Jose Hernandez) and some pocket change on Tuesday -- to a combined 0-for-8, and Sammy Sosa went 0-for-4 with two punchouts. Mark Grudzielanek had three of the Cubs' four hits on the night.
Wolf had made up his mind before the game that he was going to give the bullpen a night off, and told pitching coach Joe Kerrigan so.
"I told Joe I didn't want any relievers pitching today," Wolf said.
As the game headed to the ninth, despite a rising pitch count, Wolf had no doubt that he was going back in to finish things off. Larry Bowa had Jose Mesa warming in the bullpen just in case, but his services were not needed. Wolf got Karros, Ramirez, and Alex (Cubs' version) Gonzalez 1-2-3 in the ninth to cap the night. (Besides, when was the last time you saw Mesa throw a 1-2-3 ninth??) In the process, the members of the bullpen got some much needed rest.
An extra-innings win by Florida at Atlanta cuts the division lead to 9 1/2 games, while the Diamondbacks loss -- their fifth straight -- extends the Phillies Wild Card lead to three games. While the Phillies' offense continues to sputter along, I have become convinced that I could have the Offensive Slumber tracker in the left column for the rest of the season. Instead, I will take it down, and replace it with the Wild Card standings. Should the Phillies somehow make a run at the Braves, I'll show the NL East race instead. For now, let's focus on the route to October.
Vicente Padilla goes in this afternoon's matinee, facing Cubs' All-Star Kerry Wood. Padilla has won four of his last five decisions, and four of his last seven starts, lowering his ERA from 4.48 on June 4th to 3.71 entering tonight's game. He hopes to continue to trend, and help the Phillies to a Wrigley sweep.
Wednesday, July 23, 2003
More accolades for the pitching staff
In the latest issue of Sports Illustrated, Albert Chen has an article on Joe Kerrigan's influence on the improvement of the pitching staff.
Trades?
Rob Neyer offers his opinion on what the playoff contenders need for the stretch run:
The Phillies are in a similar situation [as the Braves], except they don't have a huge lead. Their biggest weakness has been at third base, where David Bell has been atrocious. But he's finally (and mercifully) been placed on the disabled list, and Tyler Houston is an acceptable replacement, probably as good as anybody who's available via trade. The Phillies' fifth starter, Brandon Duckworth, hasn't been good (3-4, 5.28), but he hasn't been terrible, and anyway what do you expect from a fifth starter? Like the Braves, the Phillies, who have the third-best record in the National League, should probably just stay the course.
I'll agree, with the exception of his analysis on Duckworth. I've written about that the last two days, and I think it's time to find another option. I find it interesting that Neyer does not even mention Burrell and his struggles. I doubt he thinks that a .195-hitting, power hitting LF is acceptable for a playoff team.
Getaway day
Pretty much sums it all up.
A day after Brandon Duckworth could not get out of the third and put the onus on the bullpen, Kevin Millwood barely served as an improvement. Millwood gave up five runs on seven hits, threw 99 pitches, and lasted just 3 2/3 innings in an eventual 7-5 loss to the Mets. Millwood falls to 10-7 on the year, and the Phillies were swept in this brief two-game series by a team that had been swept in four by the Braves just before showing up in town.
The Phillies fell behind 6-1 before staging a comeback attempt, but it proved to be too little, too late. Trailing 7-4 entering the bottom of the ninth, Jim Thome laced a two-out RBI double to cut the lead to two. He went to third on a Bobby Abreu single. A stolen base by Abreu put the tying run in scoring position, but Pat Burrell -- who in all fairness had a two-run triple earlier in the game -- struck out to end the game and the homestand.
So for the second day in a row, the Phillies have failed to complete a comeback. More frustrating is that for the second day in a row, they have been forced to stage a big comeback. Duckworth and Millwood have combined for 6 1/3 innings over two starts, and the bullpen is being taxed. Here are the bullpen numbers over the last two days:
| IP | H | R | # Pitches | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Adams | 2 1/3 | 1 | 0 | 44 |
| Turk Wendell | 2 | 4 | 3 | 36 |
| Mike WIlliams | 3 | 3 | 1 | 49 |
| Dan Plesac | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| Carlos Silva | 1 1/3 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
| Rheal Cormier | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Jose Mesa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
No truth the rumor that they will be recruiting arms from the bleachers in Wrigley today, but it's pretty close. Randy Wolf will face Matt Clement tonight, and Vicente Padilla will take the mound against Kerry Wood tomorrow. Win, lose, or draw, these two have to eat up some serious innings and give the bullpen a little bit of rest. The pitch count totals aren't horrible, but another short outing by a starter, and this 'pen might implode. The bullpen has been the second-best in the NL this season, but much of that has been due to the ability to selectively use them. The starters have gone deep into games, leaving the relievers to fill their assigned roles and nothing more, and not asking them to pitch two, three, four days in a row. A stretch like this could cancel out most of the good that has come from the pitching staff this season.
Yesterday, I mentioned that it might be time to look for an alternative to Brandon Duckworth as the #5 starter. I am evidently not the only one thinking that way. There is one article in the Doylestown (PA) Intelligencer, and another in the Cherry Hill (NJ) Courier Post this morning examining the possibility of dropping Duck. The Intelligencer article points out that "[i]n Duckworth's 14 starts, the bullpen has been used a total of 68 2/3 innings - or nearly five innings each time he starts." Both articles quote Larry Bowa as saying that while a change is not imminent, it could become necessary.
"If these scenarios keep happening, he'll run out of chances at some point. Saturday, it's not going to be that he has to go five good innings or he's not going to keep pitching. We're not there yet. But he's got to step up to the plate and respond."
Among those mentioned as possible replacements are Ryan Madson and Amaury Telemaco -- both of whom I pinpointed yesterday -- from Scranton, or possibly moving Carlos Silva from the bullpen to the rotation. Silva has been a starter in the minors and Bowa sees him as a future starter in the big leagues. Bowa says that's not happening right now -- he needs Silva's arm in the bullpen -- but it remains a possibility. The recent acquisition of Mike Williams -- an extra bullpen arm -- may make that choice easier.
But for now, Duck keeps floating. The question remains...how long until he sinks the bullpen?
Tuesday, July 22, 2003
Duck, Duck...Goose!
A walk, a single, and a home run. Four batters, three base runners, and just like that, a 3-0 deficit. Brandon Duckworth had hoped to start the second half of the season off right; he had hoped to work deep into the game, showing some stamina that was lacking in the season's first half; he had hoped to pick up his first win since May 17th.
Four batters into the game, and those hopes were as crushed as the pitch Cliff Floyd deposited in the right field seats in the top of the first.
Duckworth lasted just 2 2/3 innings last night, giving up five earned runs on six hits, including home runs to Floyd and Joe McEwing (his first of the season). After giving up the fifth run, Duckworth was yanked.
As brilliant as Duckworth seemed two years ago, he has struggled that much since. He started this season on the DL, and just hasn't put it together since returning in mid-April. His longest outing of the season is seven innings, in a loss to Seattle on June 5th. Since then, he has lasted 5 1/3, 1 (injury), 6, 3, 5 1/3, and last night's 2 2/3 IP. I realize that we are looking at him as a fifth starter, but we should still be able to expect more than that from a fifth starter.
On the season, Duckworth has made 14 starts. He has lasted an average of 4 1/3 innings per start. He has thrown an average of 82 pitches in that 4 1/3 innings. Only thanks to the bullpen is the team 6-8 in the games he has started. With the Phillies in the thick of the playoff hunt, we are quickly reaching the point where a decision needs to be made on whether or not Brandon Duckworth can be the #5 starter that is counted on in August, September, and hopefully, October.
The question becomes, if not Duckworth, then who? Is there someone the Phillies can call up, or do they have to look outside the organization?
At AAA Scranton, only a couple of names pop out as ready to come up and help out in the rotation:
Those are the only starters of interests at AAA. There may be a name or two at AA Reading, but skipping a level and jumping into a playoff race may not be the formula for success. But to whom do the Phillies turn if they look outside of the organization? Here are some names that have been rumored to be on the trading block:
Jeff Weaver
Sterling Hitchcock
Sidney Ponson
Jason Johnson
Kelvim Escobar
Odalis Perez
Kris Benson
Javier Vasquez
Limited choices. Vasquez probably isn't available, unless the Expos fall out of sight in the next week or so. Benson is missing his start today with an injury and has a history of arm problems. Weaver and Hitchcock just throw up red flags for me. Recent reports have Escobar staying in Toronto, and Perez is leaving LA only in the right deal. That leaves the Orioles duo.
The O's recently made a contract extension offer to Ponson, and are waiting to test his reaction before making a final decision on dealing him. Even if they choose to move him, he won't be cheap. The Phillies have some players in the farm system to deal, but are they willing to move an Utley, a Madson, etc. for a possible two-month rental? Johnson is a decent enough pitcher, but is he any better than what the Phillies currently have?
The options are few, but they may have to be examined. If Duckworth continues to struggle, and drains the bullpen in the process, an alternative has to be found. For now, the Phillies have to hope that Kevin Millwood can eat up some innings (and gain a win) in this afternoon's matinee. Unfortunately, he has fallen behind 3-0 in the third inning...let the fun continue.
Monday, July 21, 2003
Looking ahead
For that time in the near future when Myers is the staff ace, here are a few guys that can back him up:
3 out of 4, and the Phillies pick up an All-Star
How long now until we refer to Brett Myers as the Phillies' "ace"? The ace of the future threw another gem yesterday, going 8 2/3 innings, striking out ten, and carrying a shutout into the ninth before Brad Wilkerson launched a two-out, two-run home run to spoil the day. (By the way, how many ninth inning homers is Wilkerson going to hit in Philly, anyway?) Myers's victory was his 10th of the season, allowing him to join Kevin Millwood and Randy Wolf with 10 wins apiece. The threesome is tied for 4th in the NL in wins -- only Shawn Chacon (COL, 11), Russ Ortiz (ATL, 13), and Woody WIlliams (STL, 13) have more. It was also Myers's fifth straight win since he fell to 5-6 in a loss at Anaheim on June 11th. Myers spread out seven hits on the day, and did not walk a batter; he has allowed just one base-on-balls in his last five starts.
The Phillies jumped on top quickly yesterday, as Jim Thome doubled with two outs in the first inning, and Bobby Abreu scored him with a single. The one-run lead lasted until the sixth, when Placido Polanco led off with a double. Thome fouled out, failing to move the runner up, and Abreu was intentionally walked to get to Pat Burrell. Burrell, who has been the recipient of standing ovations all weekend at the Vet, has shown improved patience at the plate since the All-Star break. His stats may say that he is only 2-for-13 since the break, but they have been good at-bats. And more of a key are the four walks to three strikeouts -- he had previously had a K/BB ratio of 2 to 1.
Anyway, Burrell came to the plate with two on and one out in the sixth yesterday, and quickly fell behind 0-2. The first pitch appeared to be a fastball to the outer half of the plate that Burrell took. The second was a breaking pitch that Burrell flailed at...again. At 0-2, he fouled off a pitch before taking ball one. He fought off two more before taking a pitch just off the outside of the plate. Expos' pitcher Claudio Vargas wanted the pitch but got nothing from the home plate ump. At 2-2 and frustrated by the last call, Vargas threw the next one high and away. So Burrell has now worked a full count from 0-2, and the pitcher is a bit rattled. The ninth pitch of the at-bat is again on the outer part of the plate, but caught some of the middle. Burrell got a hold of it, and ripped it to left-center field for a double, scoring Polanco for the second run of the game. If Burrell can continue to have patience and work some more at-bats like he worked this one, improvement might not be too far off.
The Phillies added a third run in the seventh when Marlon Byrd singled with one out, Polanco followed with a single of his own, and Abreu hit a ground rule double down the left field line, scoring Byrd. It stayed that way until Wilkerson's bomb in the ninth, and Jose Mesa came in to get Edwards Guzman and close out the game.
Combine yesterday's game with the two 11th inning wins on Thursday and Saturday, and the Phillies took three of four from the Expos. Unfortunately, the Braves took all four from the Mets (including yesterday's ridiculous comeback), and stretched their lead to 9 1/2.
The Mets come off the four-game beating, and arrive in Philly today. Tonight's matchup is Brandon Duckworth (3-3) versus Aaron Heilman (0-2), while tomorrow afternoon's game has Kevin Millwood (10-6) going against Steve Trachsel (8-6), who the Phillies roughed up just before the break.
While the Phillies were finishing off the Expos, Ed Wade was working the phones and completing a deal to bring an All-Star to Philly. Wade acquired Pirates closer Mike Williams and cash for minor league pitcher Frank Brooks. Brooks had been 3-4 with nine saves and a 2.30 ERA at Reading, and had recently been bumped up to Scranton.
Williams was the Pirates All-Star representative this season, a selection that surprised even him. On the season, Williams has appeared in 40 games, throwing 37 1/3 innings, going 1-3 with 25 saves in 30 chances. Those numbers aren't bad. His ERA, however, is 6.27. And he has issued more walks (22) than strikeouts (20). Not good. This is, of course, Williams's second tour of duty with the Phillies. He started his career in Philly back in 1992. In five seasons with the Phillies, he appeared in 99 games (54 starts) and had a record of 13-25. His best season with the Phils came in 1995, when he went 3-3, mostly out of the bullpen, and had a 3.29 ERA. He was moved to the rotation the following season and struggled mightily. He finished 6-14 with an ERA over 5. The next season, Williams found himself in Kansas City.
He threw a mere 14 innings for the Royals in '97, and resurfaced with Pittsburgh in 1998. He worked in a setup role for much of the season, and finished with a 4-2, 1.94 campaign. The following year, Williams found himself in the closer role. In '99, he had 23 saves and a 5.09 ERA. In 2000, he added a 24th save, and lowered his ERA by more than a run and a half to 3.50. In 2001, he picked up 22 saves (3.67 ERA) with Pittsburgh before moving to Houston at the trading deadline to work setup for Billy Wagner. A free agent at the end of that season, Williams went back to Pittsburgh, where he put together a career year. 2002 found Williams going 2-6 with 46 saves and a 2.94 ERA with a 2:1 K:BB ratio, earning him his first All-Star selection.
Williams has struggled this season, but still manages to get the job done. That kind of description sounds a lot like someone already in red pinstripes: Jose Mesa. A quick comparison:
| Player | Sv | BS | K/9 | K/BB | Opp. Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | 25 | 5 | 4.82 | .91 | .282 |
| Mesa | 18 | 3 | 6.59 | 1.88 | .273 |
Both lines make me nauseus. The Phillies have said that Mesa will retain the closer's spot, and Williams will serve as a set up man. Williams may not seem like a great pick up, but for what he cost and the fact that he will serve as an extra arm in the 'pen (and Mesa insurance, with closing experience), it's not a bad move. No word yet on who the odd man out will be...
Friday, July 18, 2003
Rollins
According to Lee Sinins, Rollins is day-to-day with a hamstring injury:
3) Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins had to leave yesterday's lineup, due to a
hamstring injury, and is day to day.
After 0 RCAA/.743 OPS and -15 RCAA/.686 OPS seasons in his first couple of
years as a starter, Rollins is off to a .386 SLG, .314 OBA, .700 OPS, -11
RCAA start in his first 91 games. Rollins is leading the league again in
most outs made and can join Frankie Crosetti (1937-39) as the only players
in baseball history to do it 3 consecutive years.