Wednesday, August 06, 2003

Anything but useless...

From Jayson Stark's latest Useless Info column:

It's doubtful that any team traded for a reliever at the deadline who will be as effective as Rheal Cormier has been for the Phillies. But any team could have traded a bag of sunflower seeds for Cormier last winter or this spring. Last season, Cormier had the third-worst ERA (5.25) of any left-handed reliever in the National League and allowed the second-most baserunners per nine innings (14.55). This season, thanks to a trip to the Joe Kerrigan Repair Shop, he has the lowest ERA of any left-handed reliever in the National League (1.36) and has allowed the fewest baserunners per nine innings (8.45) of any left-hander except Billy Wagner.

Rocky Mountain High

Brett Myers pitched seven strong innings in Denver last night, despite not feeling real comfortable in his pregame bullpen session.

"I saw some of my stuff not breaking as sharp or moving as much and I was trying to make it too good -- knowing that in the back of my mind that this place is known for balls that fly out and not for your stuff to break as sharply," Myers said.


But when he stepped on the mound in the bottom of the first, none of that seemed to matter. Staked to an early 2-0 lead, Myers went to work. He allowed a leadoff single to Ron Belliard and a one-out walk to Todd Helton, but then got Preston Wilson to ground into a double play. He allowed a one-out hit and stranded a runner in the second, and got out of a bases loaded, one-out jam in the third. Myers consistantly got into trouble last night (his only 1-2-3 inning was the sixth), but he found a way out of it every time.

All told, he allowed two runs on eight hits in seven-plus innings, lowering his ERA to 3.58 and picking up win number 11. After giving up a pair of doubles to lead off the eighth, Myers gave way to Turk Wendell to finish the inning. Terry Adams came in and pitched a scoreless ninth.

Myers's strong pitching effort was backed up by the output of the offense. The Phillies jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first, when a single by Placido Polanco and walks to Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu loaded the bases for Mike Lieberthal. Lieberthal singled to center, bringing in two runs. They added to that lead in the second when Polanco singled home Marlon Byrd with two outs, and scored again in the third when Bobby Abreu led off the inning with a "Coors Field" homerun -- what appeared to be a simple fly ball that just kept carrying until it cleared the wall.

With the score 4-1 in the fifth, the Phillies loaded the bases again on a Thome single, an Abreu walk, and a Lieberthal hit-by-pitch. Tyler Houston followed by doing his job, bringing home a run on a fielder's choice. The Phillies scoring was capped by Ricky Ledee's pinch-hit two-run homerun in the top of the 8th. For Ledee, it was his career-high ninth homerun of the season.

So with seven runs of support, Myers picked up his 11th win. This level of support is one that Myers did not see much of early in the year, but is getting used to lately. Myers's season started with the Phillies being shutout despite Myers's gem on the mound. Two games later, the team scored but one run for him. Overall, through his first thirteen starts, the Phillies scored 51 runs -- an average of 3.92 runs per game that Myers started. Throw out an 11 run outburst on May 20th at New York, and that average dropped to 3.33 runs a game. In those first thirteen games, Myers was 5-6 with a 3.54 ERA; the team was 6-7.

Since June 17th, however, the offense has perked up with Myers on the mound. Scoring no fewer than three runs in any of the next ten Myers' starts, the Phillies have put 66 runs on the board. At 6.6 runs a game, the Phillies are 8-2 in Myers's last ten starts; Myers is 6-0. Here's a simple breakdown:

Phillies outputTeam recordMyers's record
Fewer than 3 runs0-30-3
3 runs2-32-2
4 runs2-11-1
5 runs4-12-0
6 runs or more6-16-0


I guess there are no surprises there. Give Myers three runs, and he'll give you a break-even chance of winning the game. More than that, and you'll likely get the W. So it's a good thing that the Phillies have chosen the second half of the season to back Myers up.

Notes

  • Bobby Abreu was back in the lineup last night after missing Sunday's game. Jim Thome also returned to the starting lineup.

  • Ledee pinch hit for Pat Burrell, who was 0-for-2 on the night with a strikeout and four left on base.

  • 3B David Bell, on the DL with a strained lower back, took grounders before the game last night and complained of dizziness. The timetable on his return continues to change.

  • The Phillies are now 26-7 when they score in the first inning.
  • Tuesday, August 05, 2003

    While you were not watching...

    Since I took down the "Offensive Slumber" watch, the Phillies offense has slowly been waking up. When we last had the "Slumber" up, the Phillies were hitting about .248 and were ranking 13th in the National League. As of this morning, the ranking has risen only to 10th, but the team average is up to .259 -- a nice 11 point jump. The spark can cleary been seen at the top of the order.

    Since he took over in the leadoff spot, Marlon Byrd (who was under .200 at the end of May, remember) has been hitting .363/.415/.531/.946. In 25 games in the #1 spot, he is 41-for-113 and has scored 28 runs. He only has eight walks in that time, but while he continues to hits, the lack of walks do not have much of an effect on the on-base percentage. But Marlon is not the only one who has been heating up...

    Since the start of July, 2B Placido Polanco has been hitting .400, getting on base almost 45% of the time, and slugging just over .600. He has scored 29 runs in that time and -- with Marlon getting on base in front of him -- has driven in 22 runs. A doubles machine, Polanco has hit nine of his 28 doubles since July 1, and has his overall average up to .303.

    Bobby Abreu, occupying the cleanup spot more often than not in the last month and a half, has brought his average up to .294. He hit .313./.404/..510/.914 in June, and heated up just a bit more in July, when his numbers looked like this: .337/.433/.592/1.025. With Byrd, Polanco, and Thome reaching base in front of him, Abreu drove in 25 runs in July and has added four more in early August.

    The lineup has seen some help from some unlikely sources as well. With David Bell out, 3B duties have been split mostly between Tyler Houston and Tomas Perez -- the latest additions to the "Blonde Bombshells" trio. Each is hitting .292, with Perez coming through with some timely hits. The "Bombshells" ringleader, Todd Pratt, has been no slouch himself, as he is hitting .291 with a decent amount of playing time in the last month.

    With the offense heating up, things can only look to get better as the Phillies hit the road and head to that offensive heaven -- Coors Field.

    Colorado is probably playing above expectations this season, and currently sit at 57-57, 6 1/2 games behind the Phillies in the Wild Card race. For the Rockies, Larry Walker is having a down year (.287, 10 homers, 60 RBI) and Todd Helton is having his normal Coors Field year (.351, 23 HR, 89 RBI), but the story has been Preston Wilson. The Marlins were happy to ship him out of town, and he has to be estatic about the move as well. Wilson is having a career season, hitting .305 with 28 HR and 108 RBI. He is still striking out a fair amount (103 punchouts), but even that number seems down a bit this season.

    The surprise in the Rocky Mountain range this year has been the pitching. All-Star Shawn Chacon has struggled since a DL stint just before the All-Star break, but no one can complain about the Rockies' pitching at home this year:

     GSWLERA
    Shawn Chacon10714.21
    Jason Jennings9703.63
    Darren Oliver8503.18
    Aaron Cook7405.76


    At Coors, an ERA below 5.00 will win you a lot of games. For the three game set starting tonight, the Phillies will only see one of these four pitchers. Shawn Chacon (11-5) goes tonight against Brett Myers (10-6), who looks to follow up a strong performance against Kevin Brown and LA on Wednesday. Tomorrow's matchup will feature Rockies' rookie Chin-hui Tsao -- who is 1-0 in his two starts -- against Brandon Duckworth (4-5), who is coming off possibly his best game of the season. Thursday afternoon's finale will feature Kevin Millwood (11-7) for the Phillies against Denny Stark (1-0), who lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his last start.

    The Rockies enter this series looking to make up some ground in the Wild Card race, and erase the memories of a three-game sweep in Philadelphia back in April. Another sweep by the Phillies could knock the Rockies out of the race for good; a sweep by Colorado makes this race closer than it needs to be. The pitching will struggle in Coors, so the offense has to continue to turn it up a notch or two.

    Thome, Thome, Thome

    .262 average. .379 on-base percentage. .534 slugging percentage. 27 homers. 83 RBI.

    Those aren't bad numbers. But they may not reach the lofty expectations we had for Jim Thome this season. Why are the numbers down? Aaron Gleeman explores why in his latest post. Go check it out.

    Tuesday: a happy day

    I take one day off of work, sick at home, and I miss the one piece of news that I have been waiting for all season. Figures, huh? I'll get to that in a second.

    First, let's start with the disappointing weekend. Yes, taking only 2 of 4 from a struggling Padres club counts as disappointing. The Phillies need to take advantage of playing teams like this, not waste their chances.

    The Phillies took Friday night's series opener, behind Kevin Millwood's gem. Millwood -- who threw the season's first no-hitter on April 27th -- had a perfect game going into the sixth. After a questionable ball three call -- Millwood wanted it to be strike three -- Padres C Miguel Ojeda singled to left field to ruin the perfection. Millwood erased him on a double-play grounder, and had faced the minimum through six. Millwood finished off the complete game shutout, allowing just three hits and a walk, but faced just two batters over the minimum thanks to a pair of double plays turned behind him. The offense was sparked by the top of the order, where Marlon Byrd and Placido Polanco went a combined 6-for-8 and scored four of the team's six runs on the night.

    Saturday's doubleheader proved the be a mixed bag. In the opener, Randy Wolf had what he referred to as a bad night. Bad control and a pair of fielding errors behind him led to three early San Diego runs. Wolf got things under control, and set the Padres down in order in the third and fourth, but got in more trouble in the fifth, capped by Phil Nevin's three-run home run, making it 6-0 San Diego. On the night, Wolf lasted five innings, giving up six runs (four earned) on five hits and five walks. He threw 94 pitches in those five innings. Offensively, no one told the Phillies that the game started at 5, as they were being shut out on three hits entering the ninth. They woke up for four runs on four hits in the ninth, but their late rally fell short.

    The offensive momentum continued into the second game. After four in the ninth in Game One, the Phillies scored in each of the first two innings in Game Two, and added four more in the fourth. Byrd and Polanco again sparked the offense, as they went 4-for-7 with five runs scored and five RBI. But this time, they had some help: Bobby Abreu (two hits, three RBI), Ricky Ledee (two hits), and Todd "Blonde Bombshell" Pratt (two hits, three runs) all played big parts in the Phillies' ten-run outburst.

    Carlos Silva got his first major league start, and showed some flashes in the game, but overall was inconsistant. He went four innings, giving up three runs on five hits. He walked two and struck out five. He looked really good early, setting the Padres down 1-2-3 in the top of the first. In the second, he got two outs before he faced trouble. With one out, Gary Matthews Jr. laced a double to left, scoring a run. Silva then intentionally walked Ojeda before striking out Joe Roa to end the inning. In the third, he allowed a one-out double to Mark Loretta, who stole third and scored on a ground out to tie the game at two. In the fourth, with his pitch count rising, he allowed a pair of one-out hits, scoring a run, before getting Roa and Ramon Vazquez to end the threat. Overall, not a bad performace; there was definitely some hope for the future in Silva's arm.

    Silva was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the fourth, as the Phillies scored four to claim a 6-3 lead. That lead was increased as bullpen members not named Jose Mesa pitched 4 2/3 innings of two-hit baseball. The problem was that Mesa pitched at all.

    Coming into the top of the ninth, the Phillies held a 10-3 lead. Mesa strolled in from the bullpen in order to get some work in -- he had not pitched since Wednesday's game against LA. The first pitch he threw, Miguel Ojeda greeted and drove into the Padres' bullpen. 10-4. Pinch-hitter Brain Buchanan singled to center, and Vazquez followed with a ground-rule double. After Mark Kotsay popped up, Loretta walked to load the bases as a chrous of boos filled the stadium. The boos were replaced by the loudest cheer of the night as Larry Bowa came in to relieve Mesa. Dan Plesac came in and got two quick outs to end the mess.

    Sunday's game was a pitcher's duel that would go extra innings. A 2-1 Phillies' lead was wasted in a rare bad outing by Rheal Cormier, who allowed a run to tie it at two in the seventh. It stayed that way until the tenth when -- once again -- Jose Mesa entered the game. Mesa started by walking Sean Burroughs and Gary Matthews, Jr. to put two on with no one out. The numbers on and out really didn't matter, as Brian Buchanan brought them all home on a homer to left field. 5-2 Padres. Game over. Yet, Bowa left Mesa in for one more batter -- another walk -- before lifting him for Turk Wendell. But the damage had been done.

    Two of four from the Padres. Not good. The Phillies were helped by Houston, who took two of three from Florida, and kept a four-game lead over St. Louis in the Wild Card race. A good weekend by Montreal (they were hosting Milwaukee, so don't get too excited) brought the Expos to within 4 1/2 games, and the D'backs still sit give out. But the Phillies needed to take advantage of a weekend like this and extend the lead. Otherwise, there may not be a lead to maintain.

    -----

    The Phillies may have taken a good step toward maintaining that lead by removing Mesa from the closer's role. Yes, the news I have been waiting for all year finally arrived...it just arrived when I wasn't paying attention. Evidently, Larry Bowa had finally seen enough (what took so long?!?) and determined that Mesa needed some work with Joe Kerrigan. Now, the bad news is that -- for now -- this move is only temporary. Mesa will work with Kerrigan over the next few days, and will not work the ninth inning for a week or so. Unfortunately, that means that he may pitch in other innings. Ready for the ugly?

     ERAH/9K/9BB/9Opp. Avg
    Season4.2811.236.904.34.298
    Since July 111.1716.768.388.38.383


    Joe Kerrigan -- if you can turn this around, I will forever refer to you as St. Joe. Until such time as that happens, however, the Phillies will look elsewhere for closing help. Bowa has said he will work with a "bullpen by committee" approach for the next week, and that may not be a bad thing:

     ERAH/9K/9BB/9Opp. Avg
    Cormier1.365.587.392.87.180
    Plesac1.546.568.872.31.198
    Wendell1.996.553.974.17.208
    Adams2.388.746.673.18.259
    Williams5.409.855.325.52.278


    The question becomes, will Bowa count on the guy -- Williams -- that has the most recent closing experience, but the worst numbers? Or will he rely on the guys that have gotten the job done all season long? That is yet to be seen.

    Regardless, we have to hope that either Mesa finds a way to turn it around, or -- if he does not -- Bowa sticks to his word and sticks Mesa on the bench...permanently!

    Monday, August 04, 2003

    Mesa out as closer

    Excuse the lack of updates today -- I am home sick, and haven't been up to blogging today...until now.

    D-Mac, from The Iggles' Nest, just brought to my attention that this weekend's ineptitude has finally cost Jose Mesa. Phillies.com has an article saying that Mesa has been removed, at least temporarily, from the closer's role. According to the article, Mesa will not pitch in the ninth inning for at least one week, while working on his delivery with pitching coach Joe Kerrigan.

    No word on who will serve as closer; a bullpen-by-committee is a possibility, although former Pirates closer Mike Williams may get the first crack.

    I'll have more on this later, but for now I am just celebrating!

    Friday, August 01, 2003

    Cole in Clearwater

    Cole Hamels made his first start for Clearwater last night and got...*cough, cough*...roughed up. At least for him. In his High-A debut, Hamels went 5 2/3 innings, giving up three runs (two earned) on six hits. He walked three and struck out ten on the night. His ERA is 3.18, which is ridiculously high after the 0.84 he had at Lakewood.

    Updated Links

    Some of these are old news, as I am behind in updating my links...

    To the Baseball News section of my left column, I have added a link to the Baseball Nerds. It's a fairly new site that is going to attempt to cover everything baseball-related: majors, minors, independent leagues. If it's out there, they have an eye on it.

    Three other sites have moved away from Blogger and Blog*Spot (can't blame them) to a new server and Movable Type. They are

  • Bronx Banter -- Alex has joined forces with Christian, The Cub Reporter, over at all-baseball.com. Same content and great interviews, different site. He and I even used the same title to recap last night's action.

  • Only Baseball Matters -- John's site inspired me to start the 700 Level, and his move may inspire me to do the same.

  • No Pepper -- Brad is like the Braves...he just keeps on moving up.


  • Check them all out.

    Notes

  • 1B Jim Thome got last night off. He tweaked his groin on Wednesday, and was scheduled to take the day off as of yesterday's morning. The rainfall throughout the evening made that decision look like a no-brainer.

  • 2B Placido Polanco made his return to the lineup last night, but still isn't 100%.

  • Rumors continued yesterday that 2B Chase Utley would be called up and Polanco moved to third, but 3B David Bell said he was feeling much better yesterday.

  • The Phillies stood still at the trading deadline, passing on Pirates P Jeff Suppan, who ended up in Boston. According to the Inquirer:

    The Phils offered two minor-leaguers for Suppan. Sources said they did not offer any of their top minor-leaguers: Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson or Chase Utley. Some reports suggested Madson was the key figure in the deal, but a person close to the situation said he was never discussed.


    The Phillies remain convinced (and last night's start helped) that Brandon Duckworth can capably fill the fifth starter's role, and are happy with the makeup of their team.

  • The Inquirer also reports that Ed Wade turned down an offer to acquire 3B Robin Ventura.
  • Swept away

    That's what the Dodgers were, by both the Phillies and the rain. Check out these pitching lines:

    4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
    1/3 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

    The first line is Odalis Perez's line through the first four innings . Minus a walk to Todd Pratt in the third, he was almost untouchable, and the Phillies were looking as bad as the weather.

    The second line above is Perez's effort in the fifth. As dominating as he was in the first four, the wheels completely came off in the fifth. Listening to the broadcast last night, John Kruk was convinced that Perez's concentration disappeared after walking Pat Burrell on a very close call for ball four. You could tell that he wasn't happy with the call. He came back and struck out Jimmy Rollins, and then tried to bust Pratt inside. Pratt fought it off and flared it into left field for the Phillies first hit. If the walk to Burrell upset Perez, the flare flustered him.

    Tomas Perez followed Pratt's dink with a dunk -- a line shot to the opposite field that cleared the wall and landed in the Phillies bullpen. Just like that, the Phillies went from being no-hit to a 3-1 lead and had the Dodgers' pitcher seemingly on the ropes. But Perez wasn't done taking the beating. Opposing pitcher Brandon Duckworth singled down the first base line, and Marlon Byrd got a single of his own. With the rain coming down hard at this point, Placido Polanco provided the thunder: he absolutely launched a pitch that landed in the club level in left-center field. 6-1 Phillies, Perez is done, and Duckworth has his first win since May.

    For the first time in quite a while, I can say that Brandon Duckworth had a good outing. He allowed four hits and one run over seven innings. The one run was an Adrian Beltre long ball that was up around the eyes. Regardless of whether Duckworth was trying to climb the ladder or just badly missed his spot, I have no idea how Beltre could get so much behind a pitch so high. Still, it turned out to be the only mistake Duckworth made all night, and that is a very good thing.

    The Phillies scored seven runs last night against a pitching staff that has given up that many runs only twelve times all season (two of those games came in a weekend set in Colorado, to be fair), and pulled off the three-game sweep at a time when it was badly needed. The sweep knocked the Dodgers to six back in the Wild Card race, and the win last night added a half-game to the lead over the idle Marlins.

    Coming to town for a four-game set are the San Diego Padres. San Diego has been playing decent baseball as of late, and are 7-6 since the All-Star break. But they still remain 25 games below .500, and are the only team truly out of the playoff race in the NL West. The pitching matchups for the weekend start off with a pair of Kevins tonight -- Jarvis (4-2) for the Padres and Millwood for the Phils. The first game of tomorrow night's doubleheader will be Jake Peavy (8-8) against Randy Wolf (11-5). The second game's pitchers have yet to be decided. On Sunday, Oliver Perez (4-4) will face Vicente Padilla (10-8).

    Carlos Silva was pencilled in to start the second game tomorrow night, but was used in the 9th inning last night. Harry Kalas and Larry Anderson wondered if last night's appearance may just serve to be the equivalent to a side session between starts, but the move was curious. Silva threw only 18 pitches, but was seemingly removed because he was ineffective. He faced three batters, and gave up hits to two of them; both of those runners scored. But the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Phillies will still have Silva start game two tomorrow and limit him to about 55 pitches.

    So then let me ask this: why throw him last night, and why limit him to only 55 pitches? Unless he was saving his good stuff last night, 55 pitches won't get him past the third or fourth inning, meaning you are asking a lot out of your bullpen -- and your long reliever is the starter! Based on these developments, I would much rather see a one-night callup for someone like Ryan Madson to make a spot start. But presumably, Ed Wade and Larry Bowa know more than I do.

    I will be at the doubleheader tomorrow night, so I'll hopefully have some news on how Silva looks. I'm trying to convince my wife that this doubleheader won't be like the last one we had with San Diego...where rain delays and extra innings kept them playing until 4:30 in the morning. But the forecast of rain isn't helping my argument...

    EDIT: D-Mac, from the Iggles' Nest, reminded me that former Phillie Joe Roa will likely start Game 2 for the Padres. That means in the three games I will have seen at the Vet this season (after tomorrow night) Roa will have started two of them -- Opening Day for the Phillies, and tomorrow for the Padres.