Unbearable
*shakes his head in disgust*
Well, one positive that I can take out of last night's game is that the offense isn't backing down. Trailing 6-1 in the seventh, the Phillies fought back for five runs -- including a Marlon Byrd grand slam -- to tie the game at 6. The unfortunate part is that there were 8 other innings to play.
The pitching staff again failed the Phillies. Brett Myers lasted only five innings last night, giving up five runs on ten hits. He walked three while striking out only two. Control has been a major issue for Myers in the last few weeks. From his start against Atlanta oin June 17th through his victory over Colorado on August 5th -- a span of 10 starts in which he went 6-0 -- Myers walked only 14 batters. In the four starts since: 14 free passes. I think we may have identified a small problem. His lack of control is leading to high pitch counts in minimal innings. In these last four starts, he has thrown 384 pitches in 21 innings -- an average of 96 innings in less than 5 1/3 innings per start. Not good numbers...
Still, the offense found a way out of the hole that Myers dug. The five-run inning featured big hits and timely hitting, something the Phillies have sorely lacked lately. After leaving 17 men on base in the first two games of the series, the Phillies left but two men on last night. In the seventh, anyone who got in, came in to score. Pat Burrell had a run-scoring double, and a baserunner later, Byrd cleared all of the bases. Yet, the Phillies still had to turn the game over to the bullpen.
Dan Plesac finally got an out this week -- two of them, in fact -- but he also allowed three baserunners. Two hits and a walk later, and the eventual winning run crossed home plate. Turk Wendell came on to relieve Plesac, but to no avail. Wendell threw just 1/3 of an inning and allowed two runs...without giving up a hit or a walk! After getting Orlando Cabrera to fly out to end the bottom of the 7th, Wendell plunked Jose Vidro and Vlad Guerrero to start the 8th. Both runners came home two outs later on a Brian Schneider ground-rule double. 9-6. Drive home safely.
On the bright side, Jose Mesa didn't pitch again.
Series finale this afternoon, 1:05. Then the team moves on to New York, and the last three games of this ugly, ugly road trip.
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In other news...
A few bullpen moves were made yesterday: Terry Adams was placed on the 15-day DL with what I heard described as a strained oblique muscle. Adams evidently injured himself in Tuesday night's game; Brandon Duckworth was called up to take his place on the roster. With Amaury Telemaco still scheduled to start tonight, that would leave Duckworth relegated to the bullpen unless Larry Bowa plans on going with six starters for a small stretch to give his starting arms a little extra rest.
The other bullpen move was putting Mike Williams on the bereavement list. In his short absense, the Phils called up P Geoff Geary, who threw one inning last night, giving up a run on a hit and a pair of walks.
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By the way, that's 35 runs allowed in three games in Canada. With the current conversion rate, those 35 runs translate into just shy of 25 US runs.
That's still pretty sad...
Thursday, August 28, 2003
Wednesday, August 27, 2003
Plummeting
Oy vey!
Okay, so where do I start? When I last wrote, the Phillies were preparing to embark on the "neverending" trip -- 13 games, 13 days. Since then...I'd say that the wheels fell off, but I am not sure that they were on to begin with.
The good news: The Phillies are still in a tie for the NL Wild Card lead.
The bad news: That's only because the Marlins have been as bad as the Phillies. And everyone else is creeping forward.
Actually, creeping isn't the right word...flat-out rushing is more like it, which is really sad since the other competitors are all playing around .500 baseball. When I left you last week, the Phillies and Marlins were in a dogfight, and everyone else was fighting to stay within a handful of games. Since then, it's become a seven-team race:
| Team | Record since 8/19 | Games gained in standings |
|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 1-7 | -- |
| Marlins | 1-6 | 0.5 |
| D'backs | 4-4 | 3 |
| Cubs | 4-3 | 3.5 |
| Expos | 4-4 | 3 |
| Cards | 4-3 | 3.5 |
| Dodgers | 3-4 | 2.5 |
No one could actually argue that Arizona, Chicago, Montreal, St. Louis, or Los Angeles are setting the world on fire. But the Phillies and Marlins are doing all they can to hand the playoff spot to someone else. Things have gotten so bad for the Phillies in the last week that last night's game could have been seen coming.
I flipped on the game last night in the bottom of the first -- the first game that I have had time to watch in the last week. The Phillies jumped to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first, and slowly increased that lead to 8-0. You would think that with an 8-0 lead, Padilla on the mound, and the strong bullpen, an 8-run lead was safe. But when the Expos woke up and put a couple runs on the board, I just had this gut feeling that the bottom was going to fall out. And slowly but surely...it did. 14-10 Expos win. And the Phillies fall to 1-7 on the road trip.
It appears to be the pitching that has fallen off a cliff in the last week. In the five-game winning streak to end the homestand, the Phillies gave up 19 runs in those five games. They then gave up 21 to the Brewers -- the Brewers! -- in a three-game Milwaukee sweep. They have given up 26 to the Expos in the first two games of this four-game series. Good God...
The numbers have slowly been creeping up all month long. Kevin Millwood has actually been decent in the month of August; in his five starts this month, he has allowed 24 hits in 36 innings, has a 1.00 WHIP, and a 3.00 ERA. But he is only 2-2 in those five starts. It's the other three stooges we have to look at.
Vicente Padilla has allowed 34 hits and 11 walks in 27 2/3 innings in five August starts (1-1 record). His WHIP is 1.63 and his ERA is 5.20 -- both numbers significantly higher than his 1.28 and 3.92 marks on the season. He actually had a pretty good outing last night before being pulled (too early, maybe?) and handing things over to the bullpen.
Brett Myers is -- somehow or another -- 2-1 in his four August starts despite the following trash: 23 innings, 31 hits, 13 walks, 1.91 WHIP, 5.48 ERA. Yech. You wonder if he may be hitting a wall in his first full major league season. Myers is up to 162 innings pitched on the year, and has seen his numbers skyrocket this month. Some statistical perspective: he has allowed 19% of his hits, 21% of his runs, and 23% of his walks in just 14% of his seasons's innings this month. His ERA has gone from 3.63 to 3.89 over these four starts.
But the main culpret is the All-Star of the bunch, Randy Wolf. Wolf cruised into the All-Star game at 10-4, with a 3.31 ERA and seemed very worthy of the selection. Since then: 2-5 with a 6.60 ERA. *gulp* But it gets worse. In August, Wolfie is 1-4 in five starts with a 10.17 ERA. He has given up 30 hits, 26 earned runs, and 17 walks in just 23 innings. Are you kidding me?!? In these five starts, he has a 2.04 WHIP. Control issues, anyone?
What was the Phillies strength in the first four months of the season has become it's big-time weakness. And the bullpen hasn't helped. In the last week, the bullpen has given us this array of numbers:
| Player | IP | H | R | BB | Opp. Avg. | WHIP | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | 3 1/3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | .400 | 3.00 | 10.80 |
| Plesac | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.000 | INF | INF |
| Cormier | 4 1/3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | .294 | 1.85 | 6.23 |
| Silva | 8 | 9 | 6 | 1 | .290 | 1.25 | 4.50 |
| Wendell | 3 | 7 | 5 | 4 | .500 | 3.67 | 15.00 |
Terry Adams and *gulp* Jose Mesa *gulp* were spared from this chart because they haven't been half-bad. But you might as well put kerosene on the mound instead of any of these guys lately...you'd get the same result.
Yet, through all of this, the Phillies still have their grasp on the Wild Card. But things need to turn around...a few more days like the last week, and they could find themselves looking up at half-a-dozen teams...and quickly.
More carnage...ummm, baseball?...at the Big O tonight.
Tuesday, August 19, 2003
Bad Trade?
I haven't commented yet on the never-ending boos for Scott Rolen this weekend, and I am not sure that I will. I don't like it (personally, I like Rolen and my opinion is that management ran him out of town), but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. And we all know Philly fans have theirs, and they will let you know about it.
That said, Diamond Mind offered their opinion on the Rolen deal, a year later. With Polanco putting up the numbers he is, they don't think the deal turned out too bad. There is no permalink available, so head over to Diamond Mind and scroll down for the "Rolen for Polanco" article.
Is this an important stretch?
First off, a note: blogging will be on the lighter side this week. My office is moving over the weekend, so I have to pack my office, deal with the computers and servers, etc., etc., etc. Basically, work is interfering with my life again.
So, while I have some time, back to the Phillies. If you have not already heard, the Phillies start a 13-game, four city road trip tonight in Milwaukee. The road trip is only the first half of a 27-game, 27-day stretch -- a stretch that includes 20 games on the road. I certainly hope that they enjoyed yesterday's day off, because the next one does not come until September 15th. At that point, we will have a much better idea how seriously we should be talking about October baseball at the Vet.
Some people say this stretch is important. How important? Well, let's see how many articles there have been on it:
Do we get the point yet? Yeah, the trip is important. Yes, this long stretch will go a very long way to determining whether or not the Phillies are true contenders this season. And the players know it:
"It's an important road trip. We will have a better idea of where we are." -- Mike Lieberthal
"Everyone knows what's at stake. Every road trip is important." -- Larry Bowa
"I think now there's a lot of energy. I don't think guys are worried. It's exciting that all we're thinking about is the playoffs. Usually I'm counting down the days until I can go to the golf course." -- Lieberthal
"When you have a dogfight like this you play every game as hard as you can. You (can't) take one team light." -- Bowa
"We've got a real tough road trip coming up. Hopefully we can keep this momentum. It's kind of too bad we have an off day because I think right now we're playing as good as we have all season." -- Jim Thome
"Every series is important now. It doesn't really matter where it is." -- Lieberthal
"It sounds extremely cliched, but we have to take it one game at a time. If we look at the whole thing, it becomes too much. We just have to look at it as one game against the Brewers on the road, try to win that and hope we can get some momentum." -- Randy Wolf
"I think this stretch will tell a lot about us. It's going to be fun to see where we are at the end of this trip." -- Thome
"We just need to win games." -- Bowa
"I don't have enough clothes for two weeks." -- Wolf
A 13-game road trip. 27 games in 27 days. Think they are ready? I guess we'll find out in game one tonight: Phillies at Brewers. Millwood vs. Sheets. The two pitchers matched up last Wednesday at the Vet, in the Phillies 11-4 win. Millwood gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings. Sheets, on the other hand, got bombed: 10 runs (eight earned) on 12 hits in just five innings. The Phillies are hoping for more of the same tonight, and hope to start the trip off with a win.
One game at a time...
Monday, August 18, 2003
Punto sent down
I finally found the other half of the Telemaco transaction: INF Nick Punto was sent down to Scranton. The move has to be seen as a numbers issue, as Punto played well in his role as a pinch-hitter/backup infielder. With Chase Utley playing everyday, Tomas Perez and Tyler Houston move back to the bench, making Punto expendable.
I, for one, hope to see him back soon. He is energenic and scrappy...just the kind of player that Phillies fans fall in love with.
Since we last spoke...
...a lot has happened for the Phillies:
Oh, and best of all...
So, where do we start? Let's start with the aftermath of last Tuesday. After Brandon Duckworth lasted fewer than five innings (again), and gave up four first inning runs in an eventual 6-3 loss, the Phillies realized they could not avert their eyes any longer. In the midst of a playoff race, they could not hand the ball every fifth day to a pitcher who could not get past the first few innings. So off to Scranton went Duckworth; up came 2B Chase Utley.
This move has been rumored for weeks, ever since 3B David Bell was removed from the lineup with back pain. At first, reports were that Bell would return within a few days, so the move was not made. Weeks later, Bell is still out, and Ed Wade finally called up Scranton's hottest hitter. Utley was called up on Thursday and made the start at second that night, with Polanco moving to third. The move seemed to bother neither player, as Utley went 3-for-4 with a RBI, and Polanco went 3-for-4 with a RBI and two runs scored. The two players accounted for six of the Phillies 12 hits as they defeated Milwaukee 4-3 and took the last two games in the three-game set.
Out went the Brewers and in came the Cardinals for a three-game series. When the week started, I felt that the Phillies needed to take five of six on the homestand. After losing the opener to Milwaukee, I never expected it to happen. But a sweep of the Cardinals got it done.
Vicente Padilla did not have the strongest outing of the season (four runs on nine hits in five innings), but he fared better than the Cardinals' Woody Williams (five runs on ten hits in five innings). The Phillies scored five in the first off of Williams, and clung to a 5-4 lead until the red-hot Jim Thome crushed a two-run homer to extend the lead to three. Four very strong innings by the bullpen -- including Dan Plesac's first save of the year -- sealed the win.
Saturday's big inning came in the sixth. Brett Myers was not sharp that night, but for the most part was getting the job done. Entering the bottom of the sixth, however, he and the Phillies were trailing 3-1. In the bottom of the inning, Marlon Byrd led off with a double. Polanco sacrificed him over (yes, a Phillie got a bunt down), and Abreu doubled him home. Thome then crushed a Dan Haren pitch over the center field wall to make it 4-3. Mike Lieberthal followed for a back-to-back set, and just like that, the Cards were on the ropes. They got one back in the seventh, but were shut down the rest of the way. Myers picked up his 12th win, and the bullpen threw 2 2/3 innings of one-hit baseball.
The Phillies got a break Sunday night in their attempt to run their winning streak to five: Albert Pujols had a fever. With Pujols out of the lineup, there was one fewer hurdle for Amaury Telemaco to deal with in his return to the majors. Called up to replace Duckworth in the rotation, Telemaco gave the Phillies all that they have been hoping for most of the year. After giving up a first-inning homerun to Orlando Palmeiro, Telemaco calmed down. He worked seven strong innings, giving up two runs on four hits. He struck out seven, and walked none, showing why the Phillies called him up instead of one of the young phenoms -- control. He retired the last 14 batters he faced, and handed a 6-2 lead over to the bullpen. Sunday's big inning was the third: Jim Thome hit a blast into the upper deck in right field -- only the 23rd ball to land there in the history of the Vet -- and Pat Burrell hit his own two-run shot a few batters later.
The bullpen gave up two runs in the ninth before nailing it down. The runs were charged to Turk Wendell, but the excitement was brought on by Jose Mesa. Mesa was returned to the closer's role Saturday night, when he walked Pujols to lead off the ninth and then set the Cards down 1-2-3. Sunday night, he came in with one out and a runner on. Edgar Renteria moved to second on a catcher's indifference call, and Miguel Cairo singled him home. Eduardo Perez struck out for out number two, and Mike Matheny worked a walk after falling behind 1-2. Bowa had said Mesa would be on a short hook, and with two on in a close game, Bowa pulled his closer. Mike Williams came on to finish the game, while Mesa retreated to the clubhouse, kicking coolers and fans (the air producing kind, not the ones who paid to watch him pitch) in the tunnel on the way back.
Mesa's troubles apparently did not end there, as it is reported that he pushed a reporter in the clubhouse following the game. From the AP report:
Minutes after the game, Mesa sat in front of his locker with one hand on his knee and the other rubbing his chin. A reporter from the Philadelphia Inquirer approached Mesa, who began cursing. A heated argument ensued before Mesa raised both arms and pushed the reporter away. Reliever Carlos Silva came in between the two men before Mesa walked into the trainer's room.
Larry Bowa has said that Bowa will remain the closer (albeit on a short leash), but it will be interesting to see how Bowa reacts after last night's outburst.
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So where does the 5-1 week leave the Phillies. Well, in terms of the WIld Card, right where they started. The Marlins took five of six from the Dodgers and Padres, and remain 1/2 a game behind the Phillies. The rest of the field, however, fell back slightly. Arizona went 3-3 over the last six to fall to three games back. The Cubs took three of four from Houston, and then dropped two of three to the Dodgers. The Dodgers took their two over the Cubs after dropping two of three to Florida. Both teams sit five games back. The Phillies did their part to push the Cards back, and they sit 5 1/2 back, tied with the Expos. Here are the schedules for the upcoming week:
Phillies: 3 at Mil, 3 at StL
Florida: 3 at Col, 3 at SF
Arizona: 1 at Atl, 3 vs. Cin, 3 vs. Cubs
Cubs: 3 at Hou, 3 at Ari
LA: 3 vs. Mon, 3 vs. NYM
St. Louis: 3 vs. Pit, 3 vs. Phi
Montreal: 1 vs. SF, 3 at LA, 3 at SD
So, Arizona, LA, and St. Louis are home while everyone else hits the road. The Phillies and Cards will hook up for three more, as will the D'backs and Cubs and Expos and Dodgers. Florida avoids the team-vs.-team struggle, but they have to play six games against two of the best home-teams in the league. No easy task for anyone.
The Phillies task is made that much tougher with the knowledge that the six games this week are just the first six in a 13-game, 13-day trip that also takes them to Montreal and New York. This trip will make or break this team; when they return to the Vet on September 1st, we will have a much better idea whether or not the team is set to make a September run at the postseason.
In the meantime, they relax today and spend a little more time figuring out their closer issues.
Wednesday, August 13, 2003
Options
I don't even want to talk about last night's game, but I will mention the opening lines from the AP article on ESPN.com:
Brandon Duckworth pitched his best during a pennant race two years ago. The way he's going now, he might not stick around for this one.
Uh huh...about says it all. If you want a recap of last night's game, check out the article.
Otherwise, I am looking at other options...
| Player | Level | W | L | ERA | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duckworth | Majors | 4 | 7 | 5.04 | 9.75 | 6.43 | 4.39 |
| Ryan Madson | AAA | 11 | 7 | 3.91 | 9.02 | 7.61 | 2.36 |
| Amaury Telemaco | AAA | 10 | 9 | 3.24 | 7.24 | 6.72 | 1.27 |
| Josh Hancock | AAA | 8 | 9 | 4.22 | 8.44 | 6.62 | 2.40 |
| Taylor Buchholz | AA | 8 | 9 | 2.93 | 7.92 | 7.19 | 2.05 |
| Seung Lee | AA | 11 | 5 | 4.76 | 8.22 | 6.65 | 3.00 |
Brandon Duckworth had looked decent-to-good in his last three starts. But the bottom fell out again last night, and I don't think the Phillies -- in the heart of the playoff race -- can put up with it much longer. So let's take a look at the other choices.
Ryan Madson -- Madson is the closest pitching prospect to the majors, and was coveted by other teams at the trading deadline. He has pretty good basic numbers, although he gives up almost a hit an inning. In contrast to Duckworth, however, he allows two fewer walks per nine, which can make a difference (keep in mind that four of Duck's six walks scored last night).
Baseball America lists Madson as the Phillies #6 prospect coming in to the season, citing his aggressiveness and ability to pitch inside as the key to his success. He keeps the ball low, getting a lot of ground balls. They deem his changeup to be the "organization's best and a major league out pitch". His fastball only reaches the low 90s, but he keeps the ball around the plate and doesn't get himself into trouble.
Doesn't get himself into trouble...sounds like the kind of guy the Phillies could use. Keep an eye open for him...
Amaury Telemaco -- Telemaco no longer counts as a hot prospect, if he ever was one, but he is more than handling the AAA competition. He is allowing less than a baserunner per inning, and is averaging almost seven strikeouts per nine. He probably isn't a long-term solution in the major league rotation, but the Phillies just want someone who can get them through the next two months.
The one thing that Telemaco has going for him over the other options is major league experience. He made his debut with the Cubs in 1996, and pitched in the majors most recently with the Phillies back in 2001. He got most of his innings in early in the year (ironically, before Duckworth got his callup), but has faced MLB competition. I'd give you his MLB stats, but they would ruin the very nice image painted by this year's AAA stats.
Josh Hancock -- Hancock doesn't have the best numbers on the AAA staff, but he is more than holding his own. He is actually allowing fewer baserunners per nine than Madson, albeit with less fanfare. With all of the young arms in the Phillies' system, Hancock projects to be no more than a 4- or 5-guy in the rotation, probably more a long- or middle-relief guy. But he can fill that #5 spot in the rotation right now, and probably put up equivalent numbers to Duckworth.
Taylor Buchholz -- I'm stretching it a little bit, dipping into the AA rotation, but I'm looking for any outlet here. And Buchholz isn't a bad choice. Baseball America's #4 prospect on the Phillies list projects to be a front-of-the-rotation starter and has three above-average pitches. From BA:
He throws two- and four-seam fastballs, generating plus life and sitting at 88-93 mph with a high of 96. Buchholz learned a new curveball grip at low Class A Lakewood in 2001, and now his breaking ball has more velocity than Floyd’s and equal bite. His conditioning, athleticism and sound delivery have made him durable.
His one weakness coming into the season was his tendency to overthrow, leaving the ball up for hitters. He has given up nine home runs on the year in 122 2/3 innings, so he will give up a long ball every now-and-then. The key is that he doesn't allow many baserunners in general, so when he does allow a HR, it's with minimal damage.
Seung Lee -- The great "unknown" of the Phillies' prospects, Lee did not make many preseason prospect top 10 lists. But he is putting up some of the better numbers among Phillies pitchers. He does not get as many strikeouts as his counterparts, and he will give up a lot of homeruns (19 on the season), but he finds a way to get the job done. 16 decisions in 23 starts shows that he goes deep into ballgames and fights long enough to pick up a decision, one way or the other. As Duckworth's 4 2/3 innings showed yet again last night, the Phillies could use an innings eater.
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I am probably reaching on some of these guys, and I am probably hoping too much. But I think Duckworth has shown that he cannot seem to shake whatever it is that is bothering him, and he is not the Phillies best option down the stretch. Last night's game was a must win; instead, the Phillies have now dropped five of six, and have fallen behind the Marlins in the Wild Card race. Not exactly how you want to play in the stretch drive.
My prediction (for what it's worth): look for the Phillies to sooner or later (sooner, I hope) make a move, whether it be for Madson (higher ceiling) or Telemaco (MLB experience).
Tuesday, August 12, 2003
An unfamiliar face
The Brewers come to town tonight. That remark in itself holds no meaning or level of excitement. What is interesting about it is that today is August 12th, and tonight's game will be the first between the two teams this season. Three games this week, and three more in Milwaukee next week. That's it. Done. See you next year. So the Phillies -- and more specifically, their fans -- do not have much of a chance to get used to the Brewers. So what can we expect from them, other than Bob Uecker in the booth?
Not a whole heck of a lot.
Milwaukee is 46-71 on the season, good for next-to-worst in the NL. Their .393 winning percentage is better than only the Padres and Tigers in the Majors...not a great calling card. However, they are a more-than-decent 25-32 on the road. Of course, on their last road trip (Colorado, New York, and Montreal), they went 3-7.
Offensively, they are are led as they have been the last few seasons: by Richie Sexson and Geoff Jenkins. Sexson is hitting .267 on the season, with 32 HR and 86 RBI. He has picked up the pace since the All-Star break, hitting .281 with seven of those homers and 16 RBI. Jenkins hits .281, and has 22 HR and 75 RBI one season removed from a horrific leg injury. But they are about it. Wes Helms is the only other Brewer with more than 50 RBI, and he is on the DL with a hamstring injury. But there are bright spots...
Rookie Scott Podsednik is hitting .297 on the season with a .365 OBP and 23 steals, but appears to have hit a wall, as he is hitting just .226 since the break. Veteran 2B Eric Young is still swiping bases as well, with 22 on the year, despite a .336 OBP. The Brewers have also gotten 14 homers and 43 RBI from part-time man John Vander Wal; a .283 average (and .437 SLG) from C Eddie Perez; and a .630 SLG average from the sometime-hittter, sometime-pitcher Brooks Kieschnick.
On the mound, they are led by Ben Sheets (10-9, scheduled to pitch Wednesday night). Sheets is the only Brewer pitcher with double-digit victories, only pitcher with more than 150 innings pitched, and one of two (Matt Kinney) with more than 100 strikeouts. He has a 3.95 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.13. Kinney and Franklin (tonight's starter) are the only other starters worth mentioning; each has seven wins, but each has an ERA over 5.00.
Relief-wise, Mike DeJean appears to have given way to Danny Kolb, who has a 2.25 ERA on the season (9.75 K/9), but an 0.82 ERA and all six of his saves since the All-Star break.
All in all, nothing to write home about.
So the Brewers, and their .273 opponents' batting average, appear to be prime subjects for a sweep and an offensive revival -- both much needed by the home team. Let's see if the Brew Crew plays along.