Good job...take a few days off

The Phillies roll into the All-Star break after a 5-2 road trip that saw them take 2 of 3 in Montreal and 3 of 4 in New York. The Phillies had a chance for the four-game sweep yesterday, but after jumping on Mets pitching all weekend to the tune of 21 runs and 42 hits in the first three games, the Phillies managed to convert 12 hits yesterday into just three runs. Despite their inability to get baserunners home yesterday, the Phillies still managed a ninth-inning, two-out rally -- sparked by Nick Punto -- to tie the game, only to lose it in the bottom of the inning. Still the effort was better than we saw in most of the games through June.

At the break, the Phillies find themselves with a 52-40 record, 8 1/2 games behind the still-scorching hot Braves, who took 3 of 4 from the Cubs in Chicago. This is only the third time that the Phillies have reached the break with at least 50 wins in the last 20 years:

Year	Record	Place	GA/GB	End of year result
1993	57-32	1st	+5.0	Lost in World Series
2001	50-37	1st	+1.0	2nd place, 2 games back of Atlanta
2003	52-40	2nd	-8.5	???

In the other two seasons in which they had 50+ wins at the break, the Phillies were leading the division at the time. Not so this season. Still they find themselves in a playoff spot, leading the Wild Card race by one game over the charging Diamondbacks.

The Phillies are playing .565 baseball, which translates to a final record of either 91-71 or 92-70, depending on how you round. I think at the beginning of this season, many of us would have accpeted a 91-win season and thought that such a season would win a weakened NL East. But the Braves have played as anything but weakened, making the task that much more difficult for the Phillies. The Braves (61-32) current .656 pace would put them at 106 wins on the season, a pace which -- if they can keep it up -- is more than deserving of the division title.

So while the Braves are playing above the level at which many experts and not-quite-experts had predicted -- not to mention probably a notch or two above their heads -- the Phillies, despite all their struggles, are about on par with preseason expectations. The All-Star break leads me to revisit the preseason questions the Inquirer had asked and I had answered back in February. So without any further ado...

1. What's the batting order going to look like?

In Spring Training, the lineup looked like this:

SS Rollins
2B Polanco
1B Thome
LF Burrell
RF Abreu
C Lieberthal
CF Byrd
3B Bell

Needless to say, that didn't last long. Rollins hit himself out of the leadoff spot, Burrell hit his way as low as 8 in the lineup, and Lieberthal rose to the cleanup spot. Due to ineffectiveness and injuries, Larry Bowa has rarely been able to trot out the same lineup two days in a row. I read recently (and of course now can't find my source) that the most used Phillies lineup this season had only been used six times. That's sad. At the break, the general makeup of the lineup is this:

CF Byrd
2B Polanco
1B Thome
C Lieberthal
RF Abreu
SS Rollins
LF Burrell
3B Bell

Lieberthal and Abreu switch back and forth depending on who is on the mound for the opposition. The recent injury to David Bell has forced Tyler Houston (who batted fifth on Saturday) and Tomas Perez to jump into the lineup. And Burrell's struggles have led Larry Bowa to pinch-hit/double switch for him late in ballgames in the last few weeks.

I wrote in February that Rollins in the leadoff hole would be the key to the lineup. His up-and-down times factored into the offense's inconsistancies. Polanco was tried there with no luck, and Abreu's resistance to the leadoff spot led to his struggles. Since Marlon Byrd was moved off to leadoff, it is no coincidence that the Phillies are 5-1, and the one loss came in Byrd's only hitless game at the top.

Back in Spring Training, Bowa said that he would probably have to tinker with his lineup quite a bit until things got settled...no one thought he would still be tinkering.

2. How is the rotation going to be set up?

Back in February, it looked like Millwood, Wolf, Padilla, Myers, and a questionable Duckworth. The season started with Roa in the five-spot, while Duckworth was on the DL. Since coming off the DL, Duckworth has re-assumed his spot, and has pitched as you would expect a #5 pitcher to pitch: good at times, awful at others.

Millwood has been almost all that we expected, rolling into the break at 10-6. He has the no-hitter under his belt, and has accepted a leadership position on the pitching staff. But he may not be the best pitcher on the staff; that distinction may fall to All-Star Randy Wolf. Wolf, who is 10-4 and on his way to Chicago, has been the best and most consistant for the Phillies this year. He avoided his annual April slump, and started the season well. He kept it up through May and June, and found himself with his first All-Star nod.

Padilla, at 8-8, has been everything a .500 record implies: consistantly inconsistant. He had a very good April, which culminated in a masterful shutout of the Braves at the end of the month. That was followed by a horrible six weeks in which he seemed to lose faith in any pitch that wasn't his fastball. But sometime in the last 3-4 weeks, he has re-found that confidence that led him to the All-Star game last season, and has evened his record.

The pleasant, if not unexpected, surprise has been the work of Brett Myers. Myers goes into the break at 9-6, just missing the chance to join Millwood and Wolf with 10 wins at the break. He managed to survive an April that saw him get virtually no support and a bad stretch in early June, and surround those with some gems. The highlight, of course, was his 3-hit shutout of the Red Sox in late June. Myers has shown the ability and willingness to learn, meaning the second half of the season and subsequent seasons should be even better.

3. What about the bullpen?

Here's what I said in February:

As the only area that was not significantly upgraded by Ed Wade this off-season, the bullpen is full of "if"s. If Jose Mesa can hold it together for one more year... If Terry Adams can remain comfortable in the set-up role after finishing last year so strong... If Turk Wendell can come back and pitch like he did for the Mets 3 years ago... If Carlos Silva can continue to grow and improve... If Dennis Eckersley of 1989 showed up in the 'pen...

What a shock they have been. Mesa has increased my Tums consumption, but the rest of the bullpen has been better than could ever be expected. Adams has remained strong, if not spectacular, in the setup role. Wendell has not only returned from injury, he has made the Phillies fans forget the tail end of 2001 -- 34 innings, 25 hits, 1.59 ERA. As good as he has been, Rheal Cormier has been even better. The guy I penned in as the odd-man-out at the end of Spring Training has thrown 47 1/3 innings, has a WHIP under 1.00, and an ERA of 1.52. Anyone who predicted that made a bunch of money off of Vegas. Dan Plesac has filled the specialist role nicely, and while Silva hasn't been as good as last season, the rest of the bullpen has pitched well enough that Silva has been hidden in the long relief/mop-up role. As a whole, the bullpen ranks 2nd in the NL.

If there has been any segment of the team that has overperformed this year, it has been the bullpen.

4. What's the plan for Bud Smith and David Coggin?

I'm not sure the Phillies even know anymore. Bud Smith was set to go under the knife...again...after he recently felt some pain in his throwing shoulder that Ed Wade deemed as -- paraphrasing here -- "more than a normal bump in the road". He is slated for surgery, and will be out for the season. Coggin...he has put in a few decent innings in Single-A Clearwater, but needless to say his recovery has taken longer than the Phillies had hoped.

5. Can the Phillies win the division?

In February, I said yes. But no one saw the 2003 Braves being as good if not better than the previous versions. With an 8 1/2 game deficit, the division has become tougher to win, although not yet impossible. A more likely goal is the Wild Card, but these races will flesh themselves out as the season winds down.

In spite of all of the offensive inconsistancies, the Phillies are about where everyone thought they would be. The offense isn't as good as advertised, but the pitching has been good, with the bullpen sometimes registering as "great" -- see the 16 innings of one-run ball in Baltimore for reference. The record is about where we thought it would be, although it has been a struggle to get there. If it were not for the Braves that will never die -- and even in spite of them -- the NL East race down the stretch could become a lot of fun.

Call of the Wolf...unanswered

When the Phillies were last in New York, Randy Wolf fell in love. Unfortunately, it was with a woman in passing, and he never got her name. Despite full-page newspaper ads and plenty of publicity, Wolf never found his mystery woman.

The Inquirer's Todd Zolecki followed up with Wolf yesterday, on his return to New York. While his search turned up empty, Wolf holds out hope.

Yes, Wolf took the same route yesterday as he did in May: the No. 7 train from Grand Central to Shea Stadium.

No, he never saw the mystery lady.

You will, Randy...someday you will...

No slide-stepping the numbers

In today's Philadelphia Inquirer, Jim Salisbury has a pretty good article on Mike Lieberthal's up and down year. Up and down not in terms of hot streaks and cold streaks; up as in at the plate, down as in behind it. Salisbury examines why Lieberthal has gone from a catcher who nailed almost 35% of base stealers last season, to one that catches less than 15% this season. He points a very big finger at pitching coach Joe Kerrigan, who has removed the slide-step from his pitchers' motions and puts his catchers in a very tough position when a runner takes off.

I touched on Lieberthal's defensive struggles earlier this week when discussing his all-star snub. After looking at his defensive numbers this season, I had meant to take a look at his numbers last season, thinking that maybe his poor defense was due to the knee injury he suffered two seasons ago. But I am not sure his numbers can be blamed on the injury. His 2002 fielding numbers were on par with his 2000 numbers. Now, halfway into this season, he has 2/3rds as many errors as he did all of last year, has already surpassed last season's passed ball total, and has allowed as many stolen bases as he did all last season. To match last season's numbers, Lieby would have to nail the next 21 runners who tried to swipe a freebie, and unless I'm the one running, that ain't happening.

It is not only Lieberthal's numbers that have slipped. Todd Pratt caught 25% of supposed base stealers last season (6 of 24); this year, that figure is less than 9% (2 of 21). So it appears that while Joe Kerrigan (and the addition of Kevin Millwood) have done wonders for the pitchers' numbers, the catchers' numbers are suffering.

For more, check out the article.

Just who is this Aaron Gleeman guy, anyway?

Have you ever wondered that very question? Well, the answers are here. In his latest post, Aaron has answered some viewer's questions about himself. If you have ever wondered who was on the other side of those mile-long posts he makes on a daily basis, head on over to Aaron's Baseball Blog for the answers...

Knocked off the Trachs...el

Okay, that was really bad. But it's on par with what the Phillies did to the Mets and starter Steve Trachsel last night. Trachsel got only five outs, gave up seven runs, and allowed three home runs before being lifted. With an early lead in hand, the Phillies cruised to a 7-2 victory last night at Shea Stadium.

This was one of those games -- few by the Phillies standards this year -- where it was over early. By the time I turned the game on in the bottom of the first, it was already 4-1. Marlon Byrd started the fun with a single. Placido Polanco followed with an RBI double. Jim Thome followed that with a two-run bomb to center, and Mike Lieberthal tried to match Thome's shot with one of his own. Four batters, four hits, four runs, four-nothing.

The fun continued in the second, when Nick Punto -- playing for a resting Jimmy Rollins -- jumped on the first pitch from Trachsel and crushed it. 370 feet or so later, Punto had his first career home run. (By the way, the only thing better than a Harry Kalas home run call is a surprised Harry Kalas home run call.) After Vicente Padilla struck out, Marlon Byrd got his second hit in two innings, and Polanco followed with his second RBI double in as many at-bats. Thome was intentionally walked to put runners on first and second. After Lieberthal struck out for the second out, Bobby Abreu singled to load the bases, bringing up Pat Burrell.

My first thought at that point was this: what better situation for Burrell to break out -- the Mets, Shea Stadium, and the bases loaded -- all things he loves. Well, I wouldn't call it a slump-breaker, but he did manage to draw a walk and bring in the seventh run in two innings. After that, Trachsel hit the showers, and the Mets bullpen kept the Phillies off the board for the rest of the night.

But by this point, the damage had been done. Padilla gave up a couple of hits and a run in the first, making it 4-1, but settled down and was efficient the rest of the way. He allowed only the one run and six hits through the eighth. Larry Bowa sent him back out for the ninth, but after Jason Phillips led off the inning with a solo home run, Carlos Silva came in to mop up the ninth. Padilla's eight innings of work earned him his eighth win of the season, evening his record at 8-8. No word on whether or not he will be taking part in a Crazy 8's competition this weekend.

In total, the offense pounded out 15 hits; everyone in the starting lineup with the exception of David Bell got a base hit, and Bell's replacement -- Tomas Perez -- went 2-for-3. Marlon Byrd went 2-for-5 on the night, making him 6-for-15 in the three games since he has assumed the leadoff role. He has scored seven runs and driven in three more in the last three games. More importantly, he has allowed Placido Polanco to slide back down to the #2 spot, where he has a .362 OBP this season. In the last three games, Polanco is 7-for-12, with six runs scored. Byrd and Polanco have set the table nicely, sparking the offense and the three game-winning streak.

Jim Thome returned to the lineup last night after a night off from Montreal's turf. Jimmy Rollins got a routine night off. And the bullpen should be very rested, as Silva's ninth inning last night constitutes the entire bullpen load in the last two nights.

Randy Wolf goes for win number ten tonight.

From the notebook of Peter Gammons...

When Mike Lowell this week found himself surrounded by Jeffrey Loria, David Samson, Larry Beinfest and Mike Hill -- in full view of the media -- and was promised that he would not be traded, cynics believed it to be not only a PR move but a maneuver to put Lowell into a position that if he were to decline a long-term contract offer, he would make himself the mercenary bad guy. That's a rook-to-queen's-three move known in Philadelphia as a 'Rolen.'

Ouch! True, but ouch!

Turnaround

Just a couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the recent struggles of Kevin Millwood. The June 24th loss to Atlanta dropped Millwood to 8-6 -- following a 7-1 start -- and bumped his ERA to 4.07, the highest it had been since before his no-hitter at the end of April.

But last night's 3-hit, complete game shutout against the Expos took his record to 2-0, with a 1.52 ERA in his last three starts. So what caused this turnaround? Some believe it was his decision to postpone contract extension talks until after the season. Millwood had earlier expressed a desire to discuss an extension around the All-Star break, but felt that the impending discussions were distracting him. Shortly after the loss in Atlanta, he postponed the talks. Since then, his focus has been entirely on the mound, and it's showing.

Another reason for the turnaround may be his battery mate. In each of his last three starts, the Phillies' starting catcher has been Todd Pratt -- not Mike Lieberthal. Before this three-game stretch, Millwood and Pratt had teamed together only twice: April 17, in a 7-3 loss to Florida; and May 7, in a 5-2 at Arizona. One could explain that first start as just a random bad start, or natural difficulties as a pitcher and catcher work together for the first time in a regular season game situation. But in the other four starts, as they have gotten comfortable together, Millwood has gone 3-0, thrown 30 2/3 innings, and given up just six runs on 16 hits. In those four starts, Millwood's ERA is 1.76. Even if you include the first bad start with Pratt behind the plate, his ERA with Pratt is 3.40. His ERA in 15 starts with Lieberthal is 3.66.

The difference in Millwood's ERA from working with Lieberthal to working with Pratt is about equivalent to the team's difference with the two catchers:

	ERA
Overall	3.59
With Lieberthal	3.65
With Pratt	3.35

So maybe working with Todd Pratt has made a difference in Kevin Millwood's results. Maybe it was the contact talks. Maybe it was a little of both. Who knows? And who really cares? As long as he keeps winning...

-----

The Phillies will cruise into the All-Star Break this weekend with a four-game set in Flushing against those that have been flushed. After taking all three games in a weekend set in Cincinnati, the Mets went home and got swept by the Braves. During the series, Randy Wolf and Brett Myers will attempt to join Millwood as 10-game winners before the All-Star Break.

The pitching matchups:

Thursday, 7:10PM: Padilla (7-8) vs. Trachsel (8-5)
Friday, 7:10PM: Wolf (9-4) vs. Heilman (0-1)
Saturday, 1:15PM: Duckworth (3-3) vs. Seo (5-5)
Sunday, 1:10PM: Myers (9-6) vs. ???

How good are the pitchers?

The Baseball Crank takes a look at the DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Stats) in the NL East. Scroll down to the bottom of the post to find the Phillies numbers.

Leading off...

0...12...1...4...3...1...13

L...W...L...L...L...L...W

Notice a correlation?

Yes, the Phillies turned the offense back on last night, pounding out 13 runs on 16 hits and snapping a four-game losing streak in beating up on the Expos, 13-6. A number of Phillies had a good night at the plate: Mike Lieberthal went 3-for-5 with three doubles and four RBI; Tomas Perez had two hits, a pair of walks, and scored twice; and the top of the order lit things up.

Marlon Byrd hit leadoff for the first time this season, and collected three hits in five at-bats. Placido Polanco slid back to the number two spot in the order and pounded out four hits in five trips. Between the two of them, they scored seven runs and drove in four -- each homered on the night.

Brett Myers (9-6) was the beneficiary of this outpouring of support, picking up his ninth win of the season -- his fourth in four starts. He cruised through the first five innings, allowing just an unearned run on two hits. But he began to struggle in the sixth, and was lifted after a Jose Macias RBI double in the seventh. All told, he allowed four runs -- three earned -- on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of work. The win makes him the third Phillies pitcher with nine victories, joining Kevin Millwood and Randy Wolf; not too shappy for the supposed fifth starter.

To say that the Phillies needed this ourburst last night is an understatement. After winning seven straight and 13 of 16, the Phillies had dropped four in a row. In that time, the Braves had won four straight, stretching a 4 1/2 game lead back up to 8 1/2; the Braves beat the Mets again last night to keep the lead as it is. While the Phillies had finally combined the great pitching they had been getting all season with the hitting we have all expected during the winning streak, the recent losing streak took us back to what we had been seeing all year -- decent pitching being wasted by a lack of offense. In the seven games listed at the top of this post, the five losses combined for nine runs. The two wins: 25.

Interestingly, the two wins/offensive outbursts have come with Myers on the mound. If you remember, at the start of the season, Myers was among the league "leaders" in lack of run support. Suddenly, that is not the case.

Hopefully, the Phillies can keep the bats going again tonight: Kevin Millwood (9-6) goes up against Phillie killer Tomo Ohka (7-8) in the series finale.

Up and down week

What a week to go on vacation. When I left, the Phillies had just taken 2 of 3 in Atlanta, and were looking at a 10-game stretch that included three in Baltimore, four at home versus the Cubs, and three at home against Florida. Here's what I said at the time:

root for the Phils to sweep the O's, take 3 of 4 from the Cubbies, and at least 2 of 3 from the Fish

So what did they do? They swept the O's, took 3 of 4 from the Cubs, and then tripped coming out of the dugout three days in a row against Florida. A seven-game winning streak through last Wednesday brought them within 4 1/2 games of the struggling Braves; but the weekend washout against Florida, combined with a Braves sweep of the fast-fading Expos, stretches the Atlanta lead back to 7 1/2 games entering games tonight. Even with the three-game losing streak, the Phillies have won six of ten, and 13 of 19 since the blowout and brawl in Cincinnati.

After Tuesday's win took the winning streak to seven games, Carl -- from Bigfool -- e-mailed me to say that I should take vacations more often. Carl, the streak of losing 4 of 5 started on Wednesday, before I got back to town, so you can't blame the losses on me. But like any good leader, I'll take credit for the wins. I will also take donations to fund my next vacation.

Will the Wolf Pack show up in Chicago?

Congratulations to Randy Wolf, who was selected last night to the National League's All-Star team -- the lone Phillies' representative.

  

Wolf was more than deserving of the All-Star nod, despite yesterday's loss to Florida. On the season, Wolf is 9-4 with a 3.40 ERA. His 9 wins rank 5th in the NL (behind four other All-Stars), and his ERA is 12th among NL qualifiers. He has been consistant all season, and has been the #1 pitcher on a staff that was supposed to be led by Kevin Millwood.

Wolf will be one of 31 All-Stars making their first Midsummer's appearance, one of 16 on the NL roster. Other first-time pitchers on the NL staff include Shawn Chacon (who is on the DL and will miss the game), Russ Ortiz, Mark Prior, Jason Schmidt, Mike Williams, Woody Williams, and Kerry Wood. The All-Star veterans of the staff will be Kevin Brown and John Smoltz; each will be making their sixth appearance.

Congratulations, Randy! I'll be looking for the Wolf Pack in left field.

All-Star Snub

The exclusion of Mike Lieberthal from the NL All-Star roster was not surprising, but it is still disappointing. The NL starting nod went to Atlanta's Javy Lopez, and deservingly so. Lopez is having a career year, is hitting .307 (1.019 OPS) with 23 homers and 51 RBI. NL manager Dusty Baker named LA's Paul Lo Duca as the catching reserve, and listed SF's Benito Santiago as one of the five for the final spot, voted on by the fans.

Player	Avg	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI
Lieberthal	.326	.390	.443	36	5	35
Lo Duca	.305	.366	.434	31	5	30
Santiago	.294	.337	.460	33	10	41

Yes, Lieberthal's power numbers are down this season, and the .443 SLG is nothing to write home about. But it is higher than Lo Duca's and just slightly lower than Santiago's. Yet, Lieberthal is 6th in the NL in average, and 17th in OBP. He is also 3rd in runs scored and RBI among NL catchers. By these numbers, Lieberthal is at the very least equal to both Lo Duca and Santiago.

Offense, of course, does not tell the whole story, especially for catchers. Defensively:

Player	TC	FPCT	E	PB	CS%	CERA
Lieberthal	489	.992	4	8	.125	3.55
Lo Duca	642	.983	11	4	.360	2.63
Santiago	401	.993	3	3	.188	3.52

Taking defensive numbers into the equation, and yeah, I can understand the selection of Lo Duca. He is having a good offensive year, while managing the best pitching staff in the majors. So while I didn't have issues with his selection before, I certainly don't now. But I'm still unsure about Santiago's inclusion in the final five, while Lieberthal is outside looking in. The numbers are comparable across the board, yet Santiago is in, and Lieberthal is not.

This wouldn't be a case of a manager taking his own (or formerly his own), would it? In my mind, Lieberthal deserved the chance to go...but that's why I'm here and not there.