Two Moments

Top of the ninth, 4-2 Phillies lead. Jose Mesa in to close. Bret Boone singles. John Olerud walks. Mike Cameron shows bunt to move the runners up.

First pitch: bunted, popped foul. Strike one.

Second pitch: bunted, popped foul and out of play. Strike two.

Third pitch: hanging curve, sent into the Mariners bullpen. 5-4 Mariners, still no one out.

.....

Bottom of the ninth, 5-4 Mariners lead. Tomas Perez leads off with a single. Nick Punto pinch-runs. Jason Michaels fails to lay a bunt down on the first pitch. Second pitch, Michaels doubles down the right field line. Punto is racing around third and will score...

...except for one thing: a fan reached out and touched the ball. By rule, this is a ground-rule double, and Punto is sent back to third. So instead of a tie game, it is still 5-4. Polanco then grounds out to third, runners stay put. Rollins walks to load the bases. Thome strikes out. Abreu flies to center where, fittingly, Cameron squeezes the last out.

.....

Instead of taking one of three from a strong Mariners team, the Phillies are swept and stunned. A Braves sweep of Texas puts the Phillies 9 games back, 3 games above .500, and gasping for air. And we are left with this image...

And now the A's come to town. Do you remember when there was hope in Philly?

Same story, different day

Hey, guess what? The offense forgot to show up last night. Jamie Moyer blanked the Phillies through seven masterful innings, the Phils managed six hits all night, and Seattle won 4-0. I have nothing to say about this game that I haven't said about any other poor offensive performance all season.

You can find game stories here, here, and even here.

You can find my rants about the offense here...here...here...here...here...here...and finally, here.

Instead of complaining some more, I want to take a look at a couple of the Phillies draft picks yesterday. I did not speak of the draft before hand because the Phillies had already used their first and second round picks. The first rounder was used on a slugging 1B named Jim Thome; the second pick on a slender 3B named David Bell. Both are expected to provide immediate contributions, although the jury is currently reconvening on Bell.

The Phillies went into the draft yesterday hoping to find one of three players available with their first pick, #85 in round 3. On the wish list were University of Texas 2B Tim Moss, University of Houston OF Michael Bourn, or Auburn University OF Javon Moran. The Phillies picked up all three. The keys on all three players was speed.

Moss, a 5'11", 180lb right-handed hitter, hit .320 in 64 games (and counting) for Texas this season. He had a .405 on-base percentage, and swiped 18 bases in 26 chances. Plate discipline could be an issue, as he struck out 46 times, and his fielding is suspect; he made 16 errors and had a .951 fielding percentage this past season. His defensive troubles could lead to a future move to the outfield, but for now, the Phillies will keep him at 2B. The MLB.com scouting report says he is a dead fastball hitter, and that he is a "leadoff type hitter with base-stealing potential".

Of Bourn, a 5'11", 180lb lefty hitter, MLB.com said the following:

Body similar to Kenny Lofton. Makes things happen with speed. Quick, slash type stroke. Potential base-stealing threat. Plus, plus outfielder. Can really go and get ball. Tools geared for prototype center fielder, lead-off type hitter.

Phillies scouts rated him an 80 speed on a 20-80 scale. In 45 games this season, Bourn hit .319 with a .402 OBP. He swiped 21 bases in 31 chances, despite only 166 at-bats.

Moran also has plus speed and plays a pretty good outfield. In the last year, Moran hit .338 and slugged at an even .500. He stole 26 bases, getting nailed only five times. He made only one error in 186 chances.

The Phillies chose nine pitchers through round 20, including three high-school right-handers in rounds 6, 7, and 8. Their sixth round pick, Jordan Parraz, has a live arm, able to hit 98 mph on the radar gun. The word on him is that he has the arm, he just needs to learn how to pitch. The Phillies also believe they may have found a player with the stuff to be a future closer in Matthew Linder. Linder, a 17 year old, 6'5" righty, slipped under the radar of most teams, but the Phillies were happy to take him.

To see the Phillies' full draft list, check out MLB.com or Baseball America for their draft coverage.

It will, of course, be a few years before we know which, if any, of these picks pan out. But the draft at least gives us some hope for the future. For now, we'll put that first round pick to work...immediately.

More on the offense

My post yesterday about the Phillies offense, and whether they can expect to heat up any time soon, was well-timed. Just this morning, there was an article in the Philadelphia Inquirer about the Phillies sleeping offense. They spoke to two NL scouts who have seen the Phillies often this year, and quickly discussed each player in the lineup. Personally, I like my work better.

Also yesterday, Diamond Mind compared the current state of the season to their preseason projections, and had a nice uplifting blurb on the Phillies:

Philadelphia is right on the 91-win pace they set in our preseason simulations. The offense hasn't really clicked yet, but they're only 11 runs below expectations to this point, and the pitching has been 26 runs better than expected. They trail Atlanta by six games, though, because the Braves have scored 58 more runs than we projected. There's a long way to go, though, and I believe we'll see a very close race between the Braves and Phillies.

As a lot of the "experts" have been arguing, at some point we have to expect the Phillies' offense to heat up and the Braves' offense to cool off just a bit. Right?

Welcome to Philly, Seattle

Tonight marks the start of Interleague play -- whether you like it or not -- and the Phillies will host a first-time visitor to Philadelphia...the Seattle Mariners. Not all of the Mariners are newcomers to the City of Brotherly Love, however. Tonight's starter, Jamie Moyer went to local Souderton High School and St. Joseph's University; and 2B Bret Boone is, of course, the son of former Phillie Bob Boone, and spent much of his time growing up in the Phillies clubhouse. Also familiar with the Vet and its friendly turf are John Olerud, Ben Davis, Greg Colbrunn, and Jeff Cirillo, who visited with other NL teams in the past. John Mabry returns to the Vet after being traded away last year for the other Giambi. And recently called up to Seattle, C Pat Borders will make his first appearance in Philly since he was part of the Blue Jays team that defeated the Phillies in the World Series ten years ago.

Whether familiar with the area or not, the Mariners are not planning on being gracious guests. Seattle comes to town with a Major League-best record of 37-18 -- 1/2 game better than Atlanta, 4 1/2 games up on the Yankees in the AL. They are a ML-best 20-7 on the road, including six straight in Kansas City and Minnesota. In their four-game sweep in Minnesota, the Mariners outscored the Twins -- who had been riding high themselves before Seattle came calling -- 30-13. The Mariners have been riding a great balance to be the best team in baseball: they rank in the top 5 in the AL in the following categories:

Offense: AVG, SLG, OBP, OPS, H, BB, HR, R, RBI, TB, 2B, 3B, SB
Pitching: W, L, ERA, SHO, IP, H, R, ER, SO, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS

That's a lot of good. The Mariners hit .284 as a team, while allowing their opponents to hit a measly .248 -- sadly, this is right in the Phillies ballpark. They also outscore their opponents by about a run and a half per game.

Individually, the Mariners have five players hitting over .300, led by the ageless Edgar Martinez at .328. Martinez does not expect to see much playing time in Philly, as the DH will not be used, and that will hurt the Mariners lineup. Along with leading the team in hitting, he is second in home runs (1 behind Boone) and the leader in RBI. He has also walked 30 times this season for a .426 OBP. He will give the Mariners an excellent pinch-hitter for the next three nights. Martinez and Boone are the only Mariners with double-digit home run totals, but this balanced lineup has seven players with 20 or more RBI, with four more knocking on that door. Boone is showing his all-star form of two years ago, hititng .310 with 15 home runs and 45 RBI, and Ichiro has been the spark plug that everyone expects, as he hit .389 with five stolen bases in May.

Pitching-wise, the Mariners have been anchored by Moyer, who is tied for the AL lead in victories, with 8. In 66 innings, he has allowed just 61 hits and has a 2-to-1 K-to-BB ratio. Just behind him in the win totals is the surprising Gil Meche, with 7 wins. Meche has been a surprise not because of the numbers he has put up, but because he has become so dominant so soon after surgery. Meche is 7-2 with a 3.11 ERA, but has been overpowering, striking out 51 while walking only 17. The one disappointment for the Mariners has been former-ace Freddy Garcia, who is struggling along at 5-6, 5.50. The Phillies, of course, will not face him.

The pitching matchups for the 3-game series are Moyer (8-2, 3.55) vs. Kevin Millwood (7-2, 2.93) tonight, Meche (7-2, 3.11) vs. Vicente Padilla (4-6, 4.21) tomorrow, and Joel Piniero (5-4, 3.86) vs. Brandon Duckworth (3-1, 5.81) on Thursday. Should the Phillies manage to get past a tough trio of starters, the Mariners bullpen is one of the best in the league. Shigetoshi Hasegawa (1.21 in 29.2 IP), Jeff Nelson (2.37 in 19 IP), and Arthur Rhodes (2.55 in 24.2 IP) set the table for Kaz Sasaki (9 Sv, 4.58). The Phillies have to hope that their bats have some magic left from this past weekend, or the Mariners could be leaving town before the Phillies know what hit them.

Heating up in June?

As we turn the calendar over to June, I wanted to take a look at how the Phillies did offensively from April to May. I also wanted to take a look at the hitters' career numbers to see whether or not we can expect an upturn as the weather heats up.

Here's what the Phillies did as a team, comparing April to May:

Month	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	R
April	.262	.346	.404	19	139
May	.233	.329	.398	31	114

The batting average took a nose dive, and predictably, the rest of the numbers fell, as well. It is interesting to note that while the contact decreased, the number of homers jumped. All or nothing?

And now some individual numbers:

Jimmy Rollins	AB	R	BB	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	113	20	13	2	2	.292	.365	.425	.790
May	113	16	5	5	1	.274	.305	.381	.686
May '00-'02	223	25	12	16	3	.283	.318	.502	.820
June '00-'02	230	38	12	14	1	.257	.293	.404	.697

Jimmy's numbers dipped from April to May due mostly to two factors: the batting average dropped slightly, and the number of walks drawn dropped significantly. After drawing 13 walks in April -- which for Jimmy was a great increase in patience -- he dropped back down to five in May. The two factors combined dropped his OBP 60 points. For Jimmy to continue to be successful, he is going to have to bring that back up again. .305 OBP in the leadoff spot is not acceptable. Unfortunately, his career May numbers are much better than his June numbers.

Placido Polanco	AB	R	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	51	11	.353	.468	.490	.958
May	95	17	.242	.301	.442	.743
May '00-'02	208	22	.288	.320	.380	.700
June '00-'02	270	40	.304	.327	.374	.701

Polanco's numbers also dropped from April to May, and we may have found a reason as to why the Phillies seemed to be without offense for much of the month: their 1-2 hitters were getting on base at clips of .305 and .301, respectively. Polanco's May was not indicative of his previous Mays, so we can probably expect him to hit better. Also, he tends to be a better hitter in June, getting on base just a smidge more than he does in May, so hopefully he can start to heat up soon.

Jim Thome	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	97	17	4	18	18	.227	.347	.423	.770
May	91	17	8	23	18	.297	.418	.604	1.023
May '00-'02	275	54	23	58	61	.298	.425	.604	1.029
June '00-'02	271	54	29	55	55	.295	.416	.675	1.091

They said it would take a while for Thome to get used to NL pitching. He didn't look that good in the month of May, but his numbers say otherwise. He hit 70 points better, which accounts for his 71-point jump in OBP. But the power arrived, as he slugged 181 points better. His numbers this May were about on par with the month of May over the last three years. If his numbers hold true again next month, look for his average to continue to climb and the ball to continue to land in the seats.

Bobby Abreu	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	102	16	3	16	2	.275	.385	.412	.797
May	84	17	5	19	3	.238	.379	.464	.843
May '00-'02	286	48	9	39	15	.269	.380	.479	.859
June '00-'02	288	71	13	60	19	.347	.456	.590	1.046

Bobby had an awful May contact wise, but he did not let it affect the rest of his game. He continued to get on-base (he has a 1:1 BB:K ratio this season) and hit for power. His May 2003 was down from previous Mays, but we should expect an improvement as summer hits. He is a .347 over the last three Junes, averaging 20 RBI per month. His wheels also get a workout during June, as he averages six stolen bases. Let's hope that this June is like all of the others.

Mike Lieberthal	AB	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	78	2	12	.346	.435	.551	.986
May	79	2	10	.278	.329	.380	.709
May '00-'02	210	6	19	.271	.330	.438	.768
June '00-'02	152	9	26	.296	.395	.559	.954

Mike Lieberthal started the year on fire, which makes his May look pathetic. In reality, though, his May wasn't half-bad. His May 2003 numbers are comparable to the numbers from the last three seasons (including the partial May 2001, before his knee injury), except in the slugging department. And this difference is not due to home runs; rather, it is due to doubles. In the last three years, Lieberthal had averaged 6 doubles in May. This year, he had two. His June numbers show a jump in all categories, and if you remember 2002, it was this time of year that his bat caught fire.

Pat Burrell	AB	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	108	3	13	11	32	.231	.308	.407	.716
May	80	7	12	19	30	.175	.337	.488	.824
May '00-'02	205	13	41	31	61	.322	.409	.615	1.024
June '00-'02	295	11	56	42	81	.244	.338	.427	.765

Pat had an awful month of May, contact-wise. He couldn't get up over the Mendoza line, yet his power numbers and plate patience improved. In 28 fewer at-bats this month, he hit four more homers and drew eight more walks. All of that served to bring his OPS up over 100 points. Imagine what it could have been if he could have brought the average up. I made this case before, but I believe a lot of Burrell's problems come down to luck. If you take away the walks and strikeouts, and just look at his average when he puts the ball in play, he is hitting 80 points worse than he did last season. Last season, he had 165 hits in 433 non-strikeout at-bats, for a .381 average on balls-in-play. This year, in 133 such at-bats, he has 40 hits: good for a .301 average. If he could start hittin' 'em where they ain't, he will start to bring that average -- and his confidence -- back up.

David Bell	AB	R	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	89	15	.225	.314	.315	.628
May	88	5	.193	.277	.284	.561
May '00-'02	263	37	.243	.299	.414	.713
June '00-'02	261	37	.257	.331	.395	.726

Amazing...he hits .193 for the month, and that's not even the team low. David Bell struggled mightily in May, as he had two lenghty 0-for streaks at the beginning and end of the month. He scored 10 fewer runs from April to May -- partly due to his own ineptitude to get on base, and that of the hitters behind him. Sadly, his numbers over the last three years do not show much of a bump from May to June. Should this continue another month, Travis Chapman (.294/.362/.448 at Scranton) will start to look like a lovely alternative.

Marlon Byrd	AB	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	30	6	.167	.306	.267	.572
May	49	0	.204	.216	.286	.501

We cannot compare Marlon Byrd's numbers to previous seasons, as he is in his rookie campaign. But his numbers this May were worse than April, and that was tough to do. A 90 point drop in OBP is darn-near impossible...until you see that he went an entire month without a walk. A 2-2 day yesterday is a good start to June. Let's focus on that.

Ricky Ledee	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	65	.277	.347	.538	.886
May	49	.217	.379	.391	.771
May '00-'02	99	.273	.351	.485	.836
June '00-'02	145	.248	.311	.379	.690

The truth is that Ricky Ledee probably played over his head in April, and below what he can do in May. He was more patient at the plate (12 May walks to 7 in April), but his average dropped 60 points. He has put up better numbers in previous Mays, only to see a drop in June. A drop this June could see him on the bench full-time.

Overall

Overall, Jim Thome was the only hitter who played up to par in May, based on previous seasons. Just about everyone in the lineup could stand to improve, and the heart of the order historically has as June rolls around. They got off to a good start yesterday, so we'll watch and hope it continues.

Surprise!

We all know about the 1-2, lefty/righty combo in Arizona. But Jayson Stark says that the best lefty/righty combo that no one knows about may just be in Philly. Millwood and Wolf have actually put up better numbers in the last calendar year:

Here are their respective numbers, through Wednesday, since last June 1:

Millwood 22-4, 2.74 Wolf 13-9, 2.76 Total: 35-13, 2.75

Schilling 16-9, 3.38 Johnson 16-6, 2.80 Total: 32-15, 2.90

Bring on the AL

The Phillies made me look like a fool. But if they do that by winning, they can keep doing it all year long.

After I guestimated that the Phillies could start this tough 24-game stretch with a 1-2 weekend against the Expos, they of course sweep Montreal aside, including a doubleheader sweep yesterday afternoon.

The fun began in Friday night's game, as someone flipped the switch that says "Offense" on again. The Phils exploded for seven runs late Friday night, winning what was once a close game, 12-5.The Phillies touched up Expos ace Javier Vazquez, but not with their bats. They did it this time with their...feet? They drew eight walks, including three with the bases loaded. Six of their runs scored without a hit -- the three bases loaded walks, two fielder's choices, and a sac fly brought in half of the Phillies runs. Still the bats were working: Jim Thome had three hits -- including his 12th home run -- and four RBI, while Tomas Perez reached in all three of his plate appearances and had a key two-run single in the eighth.

But like their six other double-digit outputs this season, the key for the Phillies would be to follow it up on Saturday. Then the rain hit...but maybe that was a good thing. The Phillies had another night to let their bats stay warm, and got ready for two on Sunday.

And while their bats did not stay hot, they didn't freeze over either. In game one, Randy Wolf struggled to make it through six innings without his best stuff, but he managed. He held the Expos to three runs on two hits and two walks. The two hits he allowed were home runs -- one each to Wil Cordero and Fernando Tatis. But his offense came through in the bottom of the sixth, as the Phillies scored three runs on two hits and an error, claiming a 4-3 lead and giving Wolfie his sixth win on the season. Bobby Abreu went 3-for-3 with two runs scored, and Mike Lieberthal had two hits. Ricky Ledee drove in two key runs in the sixth.

In game two, the Phillies came through with another big sixth inning. This time they scored three runs on three hits, taking a 4-1 lead, and giving Brett Myers his fifth win of the season. Myers was effective once again yesterday, but spent more time acting like the 22-year old that we forget he is. Myers lasted six innings, giving up just one run on five hits, and lowering his ERA to 2.76. Offensively, Jimmy Rollins scored two runs, Tomas Perez had two hits -- including a two-run double in the sixth -- and Marlon Byrd went 2-for-2, raising his average to .212.

The bullpen was almost perfect yesterday in the two games. In game one, Rheal Cormier went two innings, walking just one and striking out three. In game two, Terry Adams worked the 7th and 8th, striking out one. Jose Mesa worked the 9th in both games, giving up one hit, walking one, and striking out one as he picked up two saves. Those two saves gave him 102 in his Phillies career, tying him for second on the team list with Mitch Williams -- one behind the leader, Steve Bedrosian.

The sweep pulled them three games closer to the Expos in second place, and with some help from the Mets, the Phillies find themselves two games closer to the Braves after the rainy weekend. But things get tougher from here, as the Mariners and A's come to the Vet for three apiece. I'll try to have an Interleague preview later today...

Put me in coach...

I caught a bit of baseball tonight the other night, and Peter Gammons was reporting that the Phillies are just about ready to give up on Marlon Byrd -- at least for this season -- and go out and find some centerfield help. I'm not sure that I can blame them. The current CF duo of Byrd and Ricky Ledee are only hitting .222. Byrd is patrolling CF with a .544 OPS, and seems lost at the plate more times than not.

If the Phillies were inclined to make a move for an outfielder, they have some prospects to dangle as trade bait. They are also willing to take on a bit of salary to make a run at the postseason. But if they go for it, who is out there?

Readily available:

Carlos Beltran, Kansas City -- The number one player available right now, Beltran started the season on the DL, and has started off slowly, hitting only .244. But the power numbers are there, as he has hit eight homers in only 34 games. Beltran is heading for free agency at the end of the season, and KC will be looking to trade him to anyone for a few warm bodies in return. Beltran has put up good numbers, but many feel that he has prevented himself from reaching his full potential. He would likely be a half-season rental, as he seems determined to shop himself to the highest bidder.

Jeromy Burnitz, New York -- The catch is, you have to take his contract. After a few good seasons in Milwaukee, the Mets acquired the right fielder and gave him a lot of money to stink up Queens last season. He has hit well since coming off the DL last week, and has his OPS nearing 1.000. The Mets are looking for any takers, but I doubt that the Phillies would take his contract knowing he doesn't fit in their long-term plans. Along the same lines, the Mets would probably give us Roger Cedeno.

For the right price:

Kenny Lofton, Pittsburgh -- Many would argue that the Phillies should have scooped him up cheap in the off-season. Believed to be left for dead by many, Lofton is in the midst of a 25-game hitting streak that has brought his average up to .312. He is also getting on base 37% of the time and has stolen 10 bases. The acquisition of him could free Jimmy Rollins from the pressure of the leadoff spot. Pittsburgh could listen to offers if they do not pick up significant ground in the next few weeks.

Jose Guillen, Cincinnati -- The Reds' fourth outfielder asked for a trade after Ken Griffey returned from the DL and took his normal spot in center. Guillen is having a career year, hitting .341/.367/.636/1.003 with 10 homers and 28 RBI in 132 at-bats. The problem is the rest of his career. Previous highs for Guillen are a .274 average (2001), .320 OBP (2000), .430 SLG (2000), 14 home runs (1997 and 1998), and 84 RBI (1998). Guillen can also be a head-case. Still, I believe he is on a one-year deal, so he would be a fairly cheap rental.

Shannon Stewart, Toronto -- Despite their recent hot streak, the Blue Jays know that they are team playing for the future. And Stewart, at over $4 million this year, is not part of that future. Along with Kelvim Escobar, Stewart is and has been at the top of the Jays' trading list. Stewart has always been able to hit -- .300 this season, .302 career -- but just hasn't found his place in Toronto. If the Phillies are willing to add a bit of salary, this may not be a bad way to go.

Richard Hidalgo, Houston -- Before the season, Hidalgo was more available. But since he has passed Memorial Day and is hitting .299/.404/.506/.911 with seven homers and 25 RBI, he may not be as much on the block as the once was. Yet, I think the Astros would still listen to offers, if for no other reason than to clear room in the OF for prospect Jason Lane. The downside is that Hidalgo is in the middle of a multi-year contract paying him $8.5 million this season.

Rondell White, San Diego -- Another veteran on a younger team going nowhere. The Padres could be interested in moving White for a prospect or two, clearing the path for one of their many youngsters. Fact is, they are going nowhere this year, so they will keep building for the future. Not sure if he's a good fit at the Vet, though, despite his near-.500 SLG.

Maybe...

Gabe Kapler or Chris Richard, Colorado -- Neither Kapler nor Richard are playing or hitting much this season, but I list them because Colorado always seems to have a few extra outfielders.

Bottom line:

If the Phillies don't start winning some games and picking up ground in the standings, talk of a deal is worthless. If they can start picking things up, however, Lofton seems the most logical and available. Stewart wouldn't be a bad choice, if the Phils are willing to pick up the contract. Guillen could probably be had, but I doubt Larry Bowa would want to deal with the headache that comes with him. Look for Lofton-to-Philly rumors pick up in the next month...

Hard-luck loser

Kevin Millwood picked up his second loss of the season last night, but it wasn't his fault. Millwood went seven innings, giving up three earned runs on seven hits, striking out five. Not a bad performance. His main fault, however, was not pitching the night before.

The Phillies offense took another night off last night, getting shutout by the not-so-fearsome combination of Steve Trachsel, Graeme Lloyd, and Armando Benitez. One night after pounding out 13 hits, last night the Phils managed six. I'll spare you -- and me -- the sad details.

The loss means that the Phillies dropped two of three from the Mets this week; four of six since the Phillies hit the Big Apple last week. The Phillies fell to 28-25, a full eight games back of the surging Braves. (By the way, the team name has officially been changed to the "Surging Braves".) And as Bill Conlin points out today in the Daily News, the fun may just be starting.

As the Mets leave town, the Phillies have lost six of their last eight. And their upcoming schedule does not provide much relief:

May 30 - June 1: vs. Expos (2nd in NL East)
June 3 - June 5: vs. Mariners (1st in AL West)
June 6 - June 8: vs. Athletics (2nd in AL West)
June 9 - June 11: at Angels (3rd in AL West)
June 13 - June 15: at Reds (4th in NL Central)
June 17 - June 19: vs. Braves (1st in NL East)
June 20 - June 22: vs. Red Sox (1st in AL East)
June 24 - June 26: at Braves (1st in NL East)

That 12 games against teams currently in first place; six against teams in second. The teams above combine for a .583 winning percentage. Take the Angels and Reds out of the equation: .624. Oh, but they do get a game against the Devil Rays...of course, that's the Hall of Fame exhibition squeezed into the Schedule from Hell, so it should be enjoyable, I'm sure.

The Braves, meanwhile, play at the Mets, vs. Texas, vs. Pittsburgh, at Oakland, at Seattle, at Philly, vs. Baltimore, and vs. Philly in that same time span. If the two teams play at their current pace, the Phillies stand to lose three more games to the Braves in the standings. However, a shot-in-the-dark guestimate says that the Phillies could stagger out of this stretch at 10-14 (2-1 vs. the Angels and Reds; 1-2 vs. everyone else). A conservative guess is that the Braves could come out 14-10 (1-2 vs. the A's and Mariners, 2-1 vs. everyone else). Those are random guesses, but will probably play out fairly close to accurate. That means a 4-game increase in the Braves lead, putting the Phillies down by 12 games near the end of June. At that point, things will officially be ugly in Philly.

Of course, 10-14 over the 24-game stretch assumes that the offense will show up every-so-often. Such wasn't the case last night.

Good news

Three good things came out of last night's ball game:

1. The offense woke up, at least for one night
2. Vicente Padilla looked better than he has in a month
3. The Phillies got a win.

I would have taken any of the three, but I'll happily accept the trio. The Phillies bats got some work in last night, pounding out 11 runs on 13 hits -- five of them home runs; Padilla gave up one run in seven innings; and the Phillies beat up on the Mets, 11-3.

Padilla, who has been hit around since his exceptional start in Atlanta in late April, went seven innings last night, giving up just the one run on three hits. I would not say he was sharp -- he walked a career-high six while striking out only one -- but he was able to get the job done. He allowed a leadoff triple to Roger Cedeno in the first inning, that was misplayed by CF Ricky Ledee. Cedeno scored the Mets first run on a groundout by Rey Sanchez. Padilla got a second out before walking Cliff Floyd and Jason Phillips, but got Ty Wigginton to ground into a fielder's choice to end the inning.

He set the Mets down in order in the second, before walking Cedeno to start the third. He then got two outs before walking Floyd a second time and retiring Phillips on a fly out. He retired them in order in the fourth, walked Cedeno with one out in the fifth before erasing him on a double-play ball, and allowed two singles in the sixth before inducing another double-play grounder to end the inning. Padilla would get two outs in the seventh before issuing his sixth walk of the night, but stranded yet another free-pass recipient when Cedeno grounded out to end the inning.

So while he wasn't solid, his lack of control did not hurt him. All six walks were stranded, and the only run off of him scored on a misplayed triple and a groundout. Definitely could have been worse.

Yet, even if it was worse, the offense was more than able to pick him up for a change. Solo home runs by Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, and Jim Thome, as well as a pair of three-run shots by Ricky Ledee and Bobby Abreu had the scoreboard jumping. The 1 through 6 hitters in the lineup went a combined 12-for-23, with 10 runs scored and all 11 RBI. Abreu and Ledee also drew three walks each, and the free-swinging Phillies only struck out three times all night -- two of those by Vicente Padilla.

The lineup featured the return of Bobby Abreu -- hitting cleanup -- and the benching of the struggling Pat Burrell. Burrell was replaced by Jason Michaels who went 0-for-4, and may sit yet again tonight as Larry Bowa tries to get Burrell to clear his head for a bit. In addition to Michaels's 0-for-night, 3B David Bell went 0-for-5 and left seven men on base.

Still the offensive explosion last night hiked the team batting average a full three points, to a still-less-than-stellar .248. The key now is to keep the bats hot; the Phillies' previous five double-digit explosions have been followed up by an average of 2.4 runs per game -- which may be enough with Millwood on the mound tonight.

At any rate, that's one win. One more, and we might have a winning "streak" on our hands. I'm not sure I can take it...