Vacation
Damn blogger. I've been trying to post the last two posts for the last four hours. Ridiculous...
At any rate, at the end of work today, I head out on vacation. I will be on the Maryland shore, soaking up some sun, and relaxing at someplace that is anywhere but work. I shall return on Monday, July 7th...
In the meantime, root for the Phils to sweep the O's, take 3 of 4 from the Cubbies, and at least 2 of 3 from the Fish (I can handle a loss to Dontrelle Willis). If you are looking for some reading, check out the links in the left column, but be sure to come back.
Have a happy 4th, and enjoy the games!
Friday, June 27, 2003
Rumblings...
Phillies tidbits from Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings article...
The Phillies are now finally getting concerned about Jose Mesa, as much over whether he's the guy they want closing next year as whether he's good enough this year. The big dilemma is that, if Mesa remains the closer all season, he'll finish 55 games -- and trigger a clause that guarantees his 2004 option at nearly $6 million. The Phillies no doubt would prefer to have the flexibility to make their own decision on whether to pick up that option.
Teams that have talked to the Phillies continue to report they're not looking for a closer, per se. But there appears to be a decent chance they will trade for a set-up man who could also close. They almost dealt for Pittsburgh closer Mike Williams at the deadline in 2001, so it wouldn't be surprising if they make a run at him -- or Tom Gordon -- again next month.
And now that another leadoff experiment with Bobby Abreu has been pronounced dead, they might also be in the market for a true leadoff man, either in center field or at second base. Which would seem to translate to Kenny Lofton or Luis Castillo. There are no indications, though, that they've even inquired about Castillo.
Castillo would be an interesting acquisition. I am not sure if you would bump Polanco from the lineup, or move him to third and bump Bell, but putting Castillo in the leadoff spot would spark the lineup, and allow Rollins to hit deeper in the order. The question becomes, would the Phillies "rent" Castillo for the stretch run. Something to keep an eye on.
End of the 24-game stretch
Last night's victory against Atlanta ended the rough 24-game stretch that began back on May 30th. The Phillies came out of that stretch -- which included 24 games against teams that were .500 or better when the Phils came to town -- at a better-than-decent 13-9, with two rain outs. The Braves finished that stretch at 13-10 with a rain out of their own.
You may remember, when this stretch started, I made my own guesstimates on how the two teams would fair. My rough guesses had the Phillies stumbing out of the 24-game block at 10-14, while the Braves went 14-10. My guesses were based on the belief that the Phillies would go 1-2 against all of the teams they faced, except for Anaheim and Cincinnati, against whom 2-1 was reasonable. Here's my predictions versus what actually happened:
| Opponent | Exp. W-L | Actual W-L |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Seattle | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Oakland | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Anaheim | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Cincinnati | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Atlanta | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Boston | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Atlanta | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Total | 10-14 | 13-9 |
And for the Braves:
| Opponent | Exp. W-L | Actual W-L |
|---|---|---|
| NY Mets | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Texas | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Pittsburgh | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Oakland | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Seattle | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Philadelphia | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Baltimore | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Philadelphia | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Total | 14-10 | 13-10 |
I came pretty close to guessing the Braves 24-game record, although not necessarily in the way it would happen. As for the Phillies...well, they started the stretch strong by sweeping the Expos, and then fell flat on their faces with the sweep by Seattle. They bounced back and swept the doubleheader from the A's, and then struggled through Anaheim and Cincinnati. The 15-2 blowout in Cincinnati, complete with an all-out brawl, may have awoken the Phillies just a little bit, though.
They followed up the blowout with one of their own, and then proceeded to win 6 of 8 against Atlanta and Boston. So while my guesses had the Phillies losing four games (and ending up 12 back), they in fact picked up half a game, and a lot of momentum.
The three-game set with Atlanta this week started a new stretch, this one of 20-games-in-20-days. They played three in Atlanta, head to Baltimore tonight for three, head home for four with the Cubs, host Florida for three, and then hit the road again: at Montreal for three, and at the Mets for four.
The Braves, meanwhile, get the same opponents, except for the Interleague series. While the Phillies get the O's in Baltimore, Atlanta travels to the Gulf Coast for three with Lou's Rays. Otherwise, the Braves have three at Florida, four at home vs. Montreal, three in New York, and four in Chicago.
Similar opponents...who will beat on on them more?
They say an inning...
They say an inning can be the difference in winning a ballgame.
Top of the first: The Phillies load the bases with no one out...again. They had, of course, loaded the bases in each of the first three innings on Tuesday night, and managed only two runs out of it; they lost that game 5-3. The importance of early runs in this ballgame could almost be felt. Early in the count to cleanup hitter Mike Lieberthal, Braves C Javy Lopez allowed a ball to get past him, and Jimmy Rollins scampered home with the game's first run. But then Lieberthal grounded out, Bobby Abreu struck out, and Pat Burrell did the same. Bases loaded, no one out, and the Phillies managed but one run. The early momentum appeared in the Braves' dugout.
They say an inning can be the difference in winning a ballgame.
Bottom of the first: Randy Wolf almost didn't make it out of the first inning. After striking out Rafael Furcal in a 10-pitch at-bat, Wolf got a 1-2 lead on Marcus Giles before walking him on seven pitches. Gary Sheffield fell behind 0-2 before working a walk on 11 pitches. So after 28 pitches to the first three batters, what does Chipper Jones do? He lines the first pitch to left for out number two. Andruw Jones faced a two-strike count before drawing a walk of his own, loading the bases for Javy Lopez.
So, the Phillies had the bases loaded in the top of the inning, with no one out, and scored just one run. Now the Braves had the bases loaded in the bottom of the inning, with one of the league's hottest hitters coming to the plate. The wrong pitch, and the Phillies would be facing a very hard uphill battle for the rest of the night.
Wolf again got two strikes on the batter, but this time managed to slide strike three past a surprised Lopez. 40 pitches, three walks...no runs.
They say an inning can be the difference in winning a ballgame. The sudden change of emotions -- from disappointment in the top of the first, to elation and relief in the bottom of the inning -- may have made that difference for the Phillies last night.
Randy Wolf calmed down after that first inning, and dominated a Braves' lineup that has dominated left-handed pitchers all season. Wolf allowed one run on three hits in six innings of work (throwing just 69 pitches in the last five innings, after that 40-pitch first), walked just one more after the first, and let his offense carry the Phillies to an 8-1 victory.
The Phillies held that one-run lead into the fourth, when they strung together an RBI grounder by Randy Wolf, and RBI singles by Rollins and David Bell. Mike Lieberthal doubled and scored in the fifth to make it a 5-1 game, and Jim Thome hit his 18th homer of the season -- to the opposite field -- gave the Phillies a 6-1 lead in the sixth. A two-run homer by Lieberthal in the eighth accounted for the final margin. Tomas Perez and Marlon Byrd each set a career high with four hits, and the Phillies had 15 hits overall. By the way, for all of his early struggles, Marlon Byrd is now hitting .284. Yikes...
After Randy Wolf took a shot off his leg in the sixth (and threw 109 pitches in six innings), Terry Adams pitched a perfect seventh; Turk Wendell came in and pitched a one-hit eighth; Jose Mesa closed things out with a one-hit ninth.
The Phillies' victory allowed them to take two of three in Atlanta, giving the Braves their first home-series loss since they were swept by Montreal in the first series of the season. The win also means that the Phillies took four of six from Atlanta over the last ten days; couple that with the two-game sweep of the Red Sox, and the Phillies went 6-2 in this tough nine-game stretch (one rain out).
The Phillies have pulled to within 7 1/2 games of Atlanta, and have pulled within 1/2 game of second-place Montreal. They have picked up three games in the standings over their last ten, and appear headed in the right direction.
Tonight, that direction takes them north to Baltimore for the start of a three-game set with the Orioles, the last Interleague series of the season. Brandon Duckworth (3-2, 4.98 ERA) -- who has not pitched since June 10, thanks to off days and rain outs -- will go against Jason Johnson (6-3, 4.08) tonight. Tomorrow's game features Brett Myers (6-6, 3.38) -- coming off his first ML shutout -- against Pat Hentgen (1-4, 4.82), who was recently returned to the rotation after a stint in the bullpen. Sunday's game has the struggling Kevin Millwood (8-6, 4.07) trying to right the ship against Rick Helling (5-5, 5.74).
Thursday, June 26, 2003
I was called on to pinch-hit
Rachael, who runs the Out of Left Field trivia e-mails, asked me to pinch hit for her last night in this week's Wednesday trivia. She claims she has received no hate mail, so I guess I did a decent job.
At any rate, the trivia question this week was this: Name the 7 active players who have the most career homeruns in their current team's franchise history. The current team is key, as while Ken Griffey, Jr is tops on the Seattle HR list, he is now with Cincinnati, so he doesn't count. If you have the answer, e-mail Rachael with the answer and join the mailing list. You won't be disappointed.
Padilla cruises in Atlanta...what a surprise
Vicente Padilla continued his dominance of the Atlanta Braves, and the offense did all the right things against Greg Maddux, giving the Phillies an 8-1 victory at Turner Field last night.
Padilla went seven innings last night, giving up just one run on four hits. That takes him to 3-0 against the Braves this season in four starts, with a 1.48 ERA. Lifetime, he goes to 5-2, with a 1.81 ERA, against Atlanta.
"I can't explain it," Padilla said through an interpreter.
He may not be able to explain it, but he seems to control the Braves. He has also regained control over his pitches. Since falling to 3-6, Padilla has righted the Flotilla, going 3-1 in his last five starts (the team is 4-1), throwing 34.1 innings, allowing only 9 runs for a 2.31 ERA in that time. His victory last night came at a wonderful time, as it prevented a losing streak to the team the Phillies are still hoping to catch in the standings.
He got some help from his offense, as well. One night after loading the bases in the first three innings, and walking away with two runs from it, the Phillies took advantage of early opportunities.
"It's very important," Bowa said of the early lead. "When you play teams like Atlanta, when their pitcher's in trouble and you let them keep getting off the hook, they're going to beat you. We don't have as much firepower as them. So you can't let them hang around. You have to take advantage of opportunities, and we did that."
In the first, Placido Polanco reached on an error by Vinny Castilla. He scored on a Jimmy Rollins triple. Rollins scored himself on an Abreu sac fly to make it 2-0 after half an inning. Jim Thome doubled with one out in the fourth, and went to third on an Abreu single. Bobby stole second, and Thome scored on a Pat Burrell single. Abreu, who had moved up to third on the single, scored on a Lieberthal ground out. The Phillies had four runs in four innings.
The Inquirer's Todd Zolecki describes the fifth:
In the fifth, Abreu doubled, and Braves starter Greg Maddux (6-7) intentionally walked Pat Burrell, who was 10 for 31 lifetime against Maddux, to face Lieberthal.
"I was a little surprised," Lieberthal said.
Lieberthal, who has been the most consistent hitter in the Phillies' lineup this season, hit a double to score Abreu and Burrell to make it 6-1.
Good career numbers against Maddux aside, I'd still rather pitch to the .200-hitting Burrell right now than the .300-hitting Lieberthal. But maybe that's just me.
The Phillies later added two more on a Ricky Ledee home run and a single by David Bell that scored Abreu.
Since the Phillies can't throw Padilla against the Braves again tonight, they will instead send the man who may be their sole All-Star representative: LHP Randy Wolf. The pitching rotation was shuffled last week to prevent the Braves from facing a lefty, since they have murdered them this season, and thus Wolf did not face the Braves in Philly. Atlanta as a team is hitting .291 off of lefties, with a .876 OPS. They have hit 31 home runs off of southpaws in a mere 577 at-bats (1 in every 18.6 ABs). Individually, they throw up these numbers:
Sheffield: .382/.453/.782/1.235, 5 HR, 43 RBI
Lopez: .362/.375/.745/1.120, 5 HR, 35 RBI
Giles: .389/.469/.556/1.024, 2 HR, 30 RBI
J. Franco: .370/.453/.543/.996, 1 HR, 25 RBI
Chipper and Vinny hit over .300 against lefties, and each have more than 20 RBI. Andruw doesn't make contact well, but when he does, the ball travels: 6 HR, 32 RBI against lefties.
But Randy Wolf isn't just any lefty. Rather, he is one of the best in the league. Among left-handed starters in the NL, Wolf ranks first in IP and strikeouts, and tied for first in wins. He is second in ERA, hits allowed, runs allowed, and earned runs allowed. The only comparable lefty in the NL is LA's Kaz Ishii:
| W | L | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolf | 8 | 3 | 3.26 | 96.2 | 70 | 37 | 35 | 35 | 88 |
| Ishii | 7 | 2 | 2.78 | 87.1 | 65 | 31 | 27 | 59 | 84 |
With that in mind, Wolf definitely presents himself as All-Star material on a team that might otherwise be lacking this season. He can add to those credentials by defeating a division-leader tonight, a team that feasts on other lefties.
First pitch around 7:35 PM.
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
Crushed
The title could describe the Phillies feelings after last night's game, or any one of a handful of Kevin Millwood's pitches. Javy Lopez crushed two homers, and Andruw Jones cranked another, as the Braves knocked around Millwood and walked away with a 5-3 victory in the series opener.
It wasn't just the three homers that got a lot of air time, either. Robert Fick hit a drive in the second inning that Bobby Abreu brought back into the park with a sensational catch; two innings later, Pat Burrell went to the top of the left field wall to rob Chipper Jones of at least extra bases, if not another home run. Millwood appeared to be high in the zone most of the night, and the Braves bats were making contact and driving the ball. My first thought was that this was part of his problem during his slump: he was allowing more fly balls than normal, and thus more homers. But that is not necessarily the case. Last night, his GB/FB ratio was 1, with 13 of each. But in his six previous starts, he had coerced more ground balls than fly balls. So that's not the answer.
Control hasn't been an issue, either. He has walked only 10 batters in his last six starts; he walked 15 in his six March/April starts, over which he went 4-1 with a no decision. He has struck out fewer in this six-game streak, but not a noticable amount (33 in March/April, 26 during his slump). So what is it?
Maybe he is getting too much of the strike zone? His walks and strikeouts are down during this six-game stretch, in comparison to March and April; his hits are way up. In the six games in March/April, he allowed 24 hits -- this included his no-hitter. In his first five starts in May, he allowed 30 hits. In the six starts since then, he has allowed 46 hits! Quick and dirty comparison:
| Stretch | IP | H | OAvg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 starts, March/April | 33.2 | 24 | .194 |
| First 5 starts, May | 36.0 | 30 | .221 |
| 6 starts, May/June | 34.1 | 46 | .313 |
Very obviously, he is getting hit around a lot more than he was when he jumped out to a 7-1 record. So while he is not walking more batters, he appears to be getting more of the hitting zone. Last night's numbers seem to back this up: he walked only one, but he struck out NONE -- his previous season low was three, in an injury-shorted, three-inning outing on April 5th. To find the last time he went without a strike out, you have to go back to September 9th, 2001, at the Cubs. He worked three innings that night, facing 14 batters, giving up four runs on six hits. So of the 29 batters he faced last night, one chose not to put the bat on the ball. The other 28 saw something they like, and jumped at it.
I'll be the first to admit that I am no expert. I know very little about pitching, and it was my inability to hit a little league fastball that had me on the basketball courts growing up instead of the baseball diamond. But I can watch the games, and I can crunch the numbers. And my eyes tell me that Millwood pitches have been catching too much of the plate in the last month. He's missing, and at least last night, he was missing up and over the plate. That's a dangerous combination.
Tuesday, June 24, 2003
Off to Atlanta
Atlanta came to town last week with a 10 game lead over the Phillies, and the Phillies were desperate to take at least two of three from the Braves. They did just that, and followed it up by sweeping the abbreviated two-game set with Boston. One week later, the Phillies make the trip down South trailing the Braves by 8 1/2, hoping to chop a little more of that lead away. The pitching matchups for the three game set are
Tonight: Kevin Millwood (8-5, 3.90) vs. Russ Ortiz (8-4, 3.56)
Wednesday: Vicente Padilla (5-7, 3.96) vs. Greg Maddux (6-6, 4.31)
Thursday: Randy Wolf (8-3, 3.26) vs. Mike Hampton (3-3, 3.59)
Millwood faced his former team for the first time last week, and was greeted rudely. He was hit up for four runs on eight hits in five innings; he struck out five and walked three more. The loss dropped him to 1-4 in his last five starts. In those five starts, he has thrown 27.1 innings, allowed 20 runs on 39 hits, walked nine and struck out 26. But tonight, Millwood returns to his former home field, where last season he had a 3.21 ERA and opponents managed only a .237 average off of him. In familiar surroundings, Millwood hopes to break his mini-slump.
Millwood's opponent tonight, Russ Ortiz, was part of the package of pitchers replacing Millwood. And Ortiz's core numbers are not that different than Millwood's:
| Name | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwood | 8 | 5 | 3.90 | 97.0 | 93 | 31 | 91 |
| Ortiz | 8 | 4 | 3.56 | 101.0 | 83 | 47 | 57 |
But this shouldn't surprise us. One look at Kevin Millwood's stats at Baseball Reference would tell us that among pitchers similar to Millwood in terms of statistics, Russ Ortiz is third on that list. Their career numbers, coming into the 2003 season:
| Name | Years | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwood | 6 | 75 | 46 | 3.73 | 1004.1 | 918 | 303 | 840 |
| Ortiz | 5 | 67 | 44 | 4.01 | 924.2 | 849 | 468 | 712 |
Their 162-averages:
| Name | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwood | 15 | 9 | 3.73 | 208.0 | 190 | 62 | 174 |
| Ortiz | 15 | 10 | 4.01 | 211.0 | 193 | 106 | 162 |
Same number of wins per season, one more loss per year for Ortiz. Equivalent number of innings, hits, and strikeouts. Ortiz walks a few more per start. A quick look at these numbers, and one would think that you were looking at the same pitcher. But the similarities don't stop there.
Both are right handed. Big whoop. Millwood is 28. Ortiz is 29. Millwood is 6'4", 220. Ortiz is 6'1", 208. Millwood would appear to be more of a power pitcher, but the career strikeout numbers do not necessarily reflect this; this season's may, but Ortiz appears to be below his normal output this year.
So who has the advantage? One might give the nod to Millwood, returning to a familiar and friendly pitching mound. But Turner Field hasn't been a den of horrors for Russ Ortiz this year, either: he is 5-2 at home, with a 3.72 ERA. Opponents are hitting .199 off of him in Atlanta; against a team hitting like the Phillies are, that could be deadly. Ortiz did pitch against Philadelphia last week, and threw six shutout innings, allowing just four hits.
So what am I saying? Well, nothing much. These stats could be manipulated any number of ways to come up with any number of comparisons. But on the surface, I am saying that Millwood and Ortiz are about as similar as two pitchers come, and we should have a pretty even pitching matchup tonight, both statistically and physically. Tune in, and try not to blink: you may mix the two up.
Monday, June 23, 2003
Couldn't have said it better myself
From, of all people and places, CNNSI's football expert, Peter King:
Anatomy of a pitching victory:
Phils reliever Jose Mesa entered a 2-2 game against the Boston in the 12th inning. He gave up a run on a single and a triple and stood to lose the game as the Red Sox went up 3-2 in the top of the 12th. The Phils scored in the bottom of the 12th to tie it. In the top of the 13th, Mesa gave up two runs on a single, double and single and stood to lose the game as the Sox went up 5-3. The Phils scored three runs in the bottom of the 13th to win it.
Two innings, five hits, three runs, twice putting his team in a deficit.
And he gets the win.
Prospects heating up
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