Heating up in June?
As we turn the calendar over to June, I wanted to take a look at how the Phillies did offensively from April to May. I also wanted to take a look at the hitters' career numbers to see whether or not we can expect an upturn as the weather heats up.
Here's what the Phillies did as a team, comparing April to May:
| Month | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | R |
|---|
| April | .262 | .346 | .404 | 19 | 139 |
| May | .233 | .329 | .398 | 31 | 114 |
The batting average took a nose dive, and predictably, the rest of the numbers fell, as well. It is interesting to note that while the contact decreased, the number of homers jumped. All or nothing?
And now some individual numbers:
| Jimmy Rollins | AB | R | BB | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 113 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 2 | .292 | .365 | .425 | .790 |
| May | 113 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | .274 | .305 | .381 | .686 |
| May '00-'02 | 223 | 25 | 12 | 16 | 3 | .283 | .318 | .502 | .820 |
| June '00-'02 | 230 | 38 | 12 | 14 | 1 | .257 | .293 | .404 | .697 |
Jimmy's numbers dipped from April to May due mostly to two factors: the batting average dropped slightly, and the number of walks drawn dropped significantly. After drawing 13 walks in April -- which for Jimmy was a great increase in patience -- he dropped back down to five in May. The two factors combined dropped his OBP 60 points. For Jimmy to continue to be successful, he is going to have to bring that back up again. .305 OBP in the leadoff spot is not acceptable. Unfortunately, his career May numbers are much better than his June numbers.
| Placido Polanco | AB | R | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 51 | 11 | .353 | .468 | .490 | .958 |
| May | 95 | 17 | .242 | .301 | .442 | .743 |
| May '00-'02 | 208 | 22 | .288 | .320 | .380 | .700 |
| June '00-'02 | 270 | 40 | .304 | .327 | .374 | .701 |
Polanco's numbers also dropped from April to May, and we may have found a reason as to why the Phillies seemed to be without offense for much of the month: their 1-2 hitters were getting on base at clips of .305 and .301, respectively. Polanco's May was not indicative of his previous Mays, so we can probably expect him to hit better. Also, he tends to be a better hitter in June, getting on base just a smidge more than he does in May, so hopefully he can start to heat up soon.
| Jim Thome | AB | R | HR | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 97 | 17 | 4 | 18 | 18 | .227 | .347 | .423 | .770 |
| May | 91 | 17 | 8 | 23 | 18 | .297 | .418 | .604 | 1.023 |
| May '00-'02 | 275 | 54 | 23 | 58 | 61 | .298 | .425 | .604 | 1.029 |
| June '00-'02 | 271 | 54 | 29 | 55 | 55 | .295 | .416 | .675 | 1.091 |
They said it would take a while for Thome to get used to NL pitching. He didn't
look that good in the month of May, but his numbers say otherwise. He hit 70 points better, which accounts for his 71-point jump in OBP. But the power arrived, as he slugged 181 points better. His numbers this May were about on par with the month of May over the last three years. If his numbers hold true again next month, look for his average to continue to climb and the ball to continue to land in the seats.
| Bobby Abreu | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 102 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 2 | .275 | .385 | .412 | .797 |
| May | 84 | 17 | 5 | 19 | 3 | .238 | .379 | .464 | .843 |
| May '00-'02 | 286 | 48 | 9 | 39 | 15 | .269 | .380 | .479 | .859 |
| June '00-'02 | 288 | 71 | 13 | 60 | 19 | .347 | .456 | .590 | 1.046 |
Bobby had an awful May contact wise, but he did not let it affect the rest of his game. He continued to get on-base (he has a 1:1 BB:K ratio this season) and hit for power. His May 2003 was down from previous Mays, but we should expect an improvement as summer hits. He is a .347 over the last three Junes, averaging 20 RBI per month. His wheels also get a workout during June, as he averages six stolen bases. Let's hope that this June is like all of the others.
| Mike Lieberthal | AB | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 78 | 2 | 12 | .346 | .435 | .551 | .986 |
| May | 79 | 2 | 10 | .278 | .329 | .380 | .709 |
| May '00-'02 | 210 | 6 | 19 | .271 | .330 | .438 | .768 |
| June '00-'02 | 152 | 9 | 26 | .296 | .395 | .559 | .954 |
Mike Lieberthal started the year on fire, which makes his May look pathetic. In reality, though, his May wasn't half-bad. His May 2003 numbers are comparable to the numbers from the last three seasons (including the partial May 2001, before his knee injury), except in the slugging department. And this difference is not due to home runs; rather, it is due to doubles. In the last three years, Lieberthal had averaged 6 doubles in May. This year, he had two. His June numbers show a jump in all categories, and if you remember 2002, it was this time of year that his bat caught fire.
| Pat Burrell | AB | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 108 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 32 | .231 | .308 | .407 | .716 |
| May | 80 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 30 | .175 | .337 | .488 | .824 |
| May '00-'02 | 205 | 13 | 41 | 31 | 61 | .322 | .409 | .615 | 1.024 |
| June '00-'02 | 295 | 11 | 56 | 42 | 81 | .244 | .338 | .427 | .765 |
Pat had an awful month of May, contact-wise. He couldn't get up over the Mendoza line, yet his power numbers and plate patience improved. In 28 fewer at-bats this month, he hit four more homers and drew eight more walks. All of that served to bring his OPS up over 100 points. Imagine what it could have been if he could have brought the average up. I made
this case before, but I believe a lot of Burrell's problems come down to luck. If you take away the walks and strikeouts, and just look at his average when he puts the ball in play, he is hitting 80 points worse than he did last season. Last season, he had 165 hits in 433 non-strikeout at-bats, for a .381 average on balls-in-play. This year, in 133 such at-bats, he has 40 hits: good for a .301 average. If he could start hittin' 'em where they ain't, he will start to bring that average -- and his confidence -- back up.
| David Bell | AB | R | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 89 | 15 | .225 | .314 | .315 | .628 |
| May | 88 | 5 | .193 | .277 | .284 | .561 |
| May '00-'02 | 263 | 37 | .243 | .299 | .414 | .713 |
| June '00-'02 | 261 | 37 | .257 | .331 | .395 | .726 |
Amazing...he hits .193 for the month, and that's not even the team low. David Bell struggled mightily in May, as he had two lenghty 0-for streaks at the beginning and end of the month. He scored 10 fewer runs from April to May -- partly due to his own ineptitude to get on base, and that of the hitters behind him. Sadly, his numbers over the last three years do not show much of a bump from May to June. Should this continue another month, Travis Chapman (.294/.362/.448 at Scranton) will start to look like a lovely alternative.
| Marlon Byrd | AB | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 30 | 6 | .167 | .306 | .267 | .572 |
| May | 49 | 0 | .204 | .216 | .286 | .501 |
We cannot compare Marlon Byrd's numbers to previous seasons, as he is in his rookie campaign. But his numbers this May were worse than April, and that was tough to do. A 90 point drop in OBP is darn-near impossible...until you see that he went an entire month without a walk. A 2-2 day yesterday is a good start to June. Let's focus on that.
| Ricky Ledee | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|
| April | 65 | .277 | .347 | .538 | .886 |
| May | 49 | .217 | .379 | .391 | .771 |
| May '00-'02 | 99 | .273 | .351 | .485 | .836 |
| June '00-'02 | 145 | .248 | .311 | .379 | .690 |
The truth is that Ricky Ledee probably played over his head in April, and below what he can do in May. He was more patient at the plate (12 May walks to 7 in April), but his average dropped 60 points. He has put up better numbers in previous Mays, only to see a drop in June. A drop this June could see him on the bench full-time.
Overall
Overall, Jim Thome was the only hitter who played up to par in May, based on previous seasons. Just about everyone in the lineup could stand to improve, and the heart of the order historically has as June rolls around. They got off to a good start yesterday, so we'll watch and hope it continues.